Hello fellow investors,
I guess most of you will have read the article: "Uranium-a place to hide" which i posted here some days ago.
I want to draw some conclusions from this article for Marenica, as i do think some of the facts mentioned in there will have a significant impact on our project on the positive side.
1.It gives us an explanation for the currently depressed spot price with the Uzbeks having to sell their annual production of 6.5 Mio lbs into the spot market because they didnt honor their long term contracts in the past.
2.(And this really is the key point for us)
It states that RIOs Rssing mine and the Kazackhs have to cope with an OPEX north of 50 USD/lbs !!!
While this is hardly surprising for Rssing,after all their mine is nearing the end of its mine life cycle,IMO this is thrilling news if it comes to Kazakhstan.
This country is another player that is responsible for the depressed uranium price.
Most industry observers (and me) were very surprised to see that this small country was able to increase their annual production over recent years,up to date making them the worlds number 2 ranking producer.
But if they are selling their uranium at such cheap prices and having to pay 55 USD/lbs (according to their own analysis) for producing,lets think about what that will mean for Marenica ?!
Well here is my favorite quote from this article:
"These are fine conditions for investors in low-cost uranium mines to make a lot of money."
In MEYs latest presentation the company estimated the OPEX to be around 32 USD. Now you have to savour this.
It would mean less than 60 % of Kazakhstans costs.And remember worlds No. 2 producer with an output of currently more than 30 Mio lbs/year.
So long before our resource is likely to be uneconomic other sellers on the market will have to strike their colors.And to stay in the picture not a small vessel,but a huge three master.
Our CAPEX was estimated at ~ 100 Mio USD,so no big obstacle from this side (just compare to Bannermans sum of 555 Mio USD-from where do they want to get this kind of money in current market conditions,without even a cornerstone investor on board ?)
Of course these numbers are just estimates,but IMO they are based on well established facts (close to surface mineralisation,resource grades amenable to 250-350 % increase after screening and scrubbing,etc...)
Furthermore i trust that our management would not have published numbers like these,if they would expect the scoping study will not be able to prove this.
(I guess everybody in the Australian uranium industry knows what happened to Bannerman after they did this mistake last year...)
So the scoping study will have to show,what Marenica is worth (meaning our undervaluation) and i have every confidence it will do exactly that.
Coming to the depressing shareprice:
Yes there seems to be a seller in the market who throws his shares on the market-no matter how cheap the price is.With ridiculously low volume he is able to sink MEY from 0.14 down to 0.125 AUD.(as happened yesterday) FRUSTATING !!!
But does this change any of the fundamentals ???
Or the fact that AREVA is on board (and by the way was willing to pay 0.184 AUD/share last year before ! a 120 % increase of our ressource)
Or the fact that MEY is one of the very few Namibian uranium plays that already has nearly solved its BEE-issue?
Or the fact that an excellent infrastructure is already in place (thanks to AREVA) water will be available.
Or the fact that we upgraded our ressource from 38.6 Mlbs to 85 Mlbs along with increasing grades from 140 ppm to 170 ppm ? (and this really should tell everybody what happens here: our shareprice currently is lower than before this upgrade !!??!!?? )
So, fellow investors just a few more days or weeks of patience now and all the nonbelievers will see the final result.
I am looking forward to read this study.It should lower the risk for potential investors significantly and i believe this will be appreciated by the market.
Wantedman
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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3 | 62160 | 0.295 |
1 | 20000 | 0.290 |
1 | 20000 | 0.285 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.315 | 90621 | 4 |
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