Here is some additional info in a not as well publicised report as the AEMO GSOO. There appears to be an acknowledgement that the supply/demand forecast is subject to change in certain scenarios, some of which, e.g closure of Liddell replaced by gas fired Kurri Kurri, are certain rather than probable, see as follows:-
"These recent experiences indicate that gas-powered generation demand could besignificantly higher than forecast if there are delays in the commissioning of new renewablecapacity or interconnections, unexpected generation retirement, additional unplannedoutages of coal-fired power stations or regional interconnectors, or unanticipated hot weatherevents. Given the risks associated with these developments and the potential size of theshortfall, an additional supply of gas may be required in the south to ensure that supply issufficient to meet forecast demand from 2024."
Australian EnergyMarket CommissionConsultation paperReview of the Gas Supply Guarantee11 March 2021
Here is some additional info in a not as well publicised report...
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