Gillard has no chance of seeing out the year as PM. The bells are clearly tolling.
What does that mean? There are permutations such as Thomson being charged and/or resigning, the Independents not agreeing to back a new PM etc. One that is not often canvassed is this: The Insiders reported on Sunday that Gillard has made known she will leave politics if she is dumped. Such a by-election would be disastrous for Labor. Alternatively, it is a clear as crystal now that Rudd wants his old job back - that is why he's hung around the last 16 months. I fhe has a tilt and loses - or if the powerbrokers make clear his return is impossible - then there is no reason Rudd would want to hang around.
Gillard gone by Christmas and an election early new year. A win/win for Australia. Depending on the size of the landslide, all the speculation about a double dissolution soon after may be premature. Swan said the other day that a Labor Opposition would defend the Carbon Tax [I assume he meant Carbon Dioxide Tax]. That's a joke because all polling shows Swan won't be there post-election! If Labor gets a drubbing, which Newspolls predict, I can't see too many nervous nelly backbenchers savouring another lashing by an angry electorate if they refused to respect a Coalition mandate to repeal that tax, and the NBN legislation. As Sir Humphrey would say it would be a courageous decision indeed.
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