Gillard has no chance of seeing out the year as PM. The bells...

Gillard has no chance of seeing out the year as PM. The bells are clearly tolling.

What does that mean? There are permutations such as Thomson being charged and/or resigning, the Independents not agreeing to back a new PM etc. One that is not often canvassed is this: The Insiders reported on Sunday that Gillard has made known she will leave politics if she is dumped. Such a by-election would be disastrous for Labor. Alternatively, it is a clear as crystal now that Rudd wants his old job back - that is why he's hung around the last 16 months. I fhe has a tilt and loses - or if the powerbrokers make clear his return is impossible - then there is no reason Rudd would want to hang around.

Gillard gone by Christmas and an election early new year. A win/win for Australia. Depending on the size of the landslide, all the speculation about a double dissolution soon after may be premature. Swan said the other day that a Labor Opposition would defend the Carbon Tax [I assume he meant Carbon Dioxide Tax]. That's a joke because all polling shows Swan won't be there post-election! If Labor gets a drubbing, which Newspolls predict, I can't see too many nervous nelly backbenchers savouring another lashing by an angry electorate if they refused to respect a Coalition mandate to repeal that tax, and the NBN legislation. As Sir Humphrey would say it would be a courageous decision indeed.