Highlights A major decline in durable goods orders or a jump in initial jobless claims past 600,000 could make markets less resistant to bad news.
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
Released on 1/29/2009 8:30:00 AM For December, 2008 Previous Consensus Consensus Range New Orders - M/M change -1.0 % -2.0 % -6.0 % to 1.2 %
Market Consensus Before Announcement Durable goods orders in November continued to contract. Durable goods orders fell 1.5 percent in November, following an 8.5 percent drop in October (previously estimated as 1.0 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively in the advance report). Excluding the transportation component, new orders partially rebounded 0.6 percent, after declining 6.9 percent the month before. Strength in the latest month was primarily in defense capital goods. Excluding defense, new orders fell 0.9 percent.
New orders for durable goods Consensus Forecast for December 08: -2.0 percent Range: -6.0 percent to +1.2 percent
New orders for durable goods, ex-trans., Consensus Forecast for December 08: -2.7 percent Range: -4.0 percent to 0.0 percent
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Released on 1/29/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk1/24, 2009 Previous Consensus Consensus Range New Claims - Level 589 K 575 K 540 K to 650 K
Market Consensus Before Announcement Initial jobless claims for the January 17 week surged 62,000 to 589,000, up from 527,000 in the prior week. The 589,000 level was matched once in December but otherwise is the highest since the early 1980s. Yes, initial claims clearly are at recessionary heights. But the picture for continuing claims has been worsening even more. Continuing claims for the January 10 week rose 97,000 to 4.607 million.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/24/08: 575,000 Range: 540,000 to 650,000
New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET Released on 1/29/2009 10:00:00 AM For December, 2008 Previous Consensus Consensus Range New Home Sales - Level - SAAR 407 K 400 K 350 K to 410 K
Market Consensus Before Announcement New home sales set a new low with sales down 2.9 percent in November to a 407,000 annual rate. The year-on-year rate is an abysmal minus 35.3 percent. Supply of new home sales remains extremely heavy, at 11.5 months for the third straight month over 11 months. The median price did firm in the latest month, rising 2.7 percent, and likely due to a faster drop off in low end sales. Home prices on a year-ago basis are down 11.5 percent.
New home sales Consensus Forecast for December 08: 400 thousand-unit annual rate Range: 350 thousand to 410 thousand-unit annual rate
SYMBOL COMPANY EVENT TITLE EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL Date/Time (ET)
MMM 3M Company Q4 2008 3M Company Earnings Release $ 0.93 n/a $ 1.19 29-Jan
MO Altria Group, Inc. Q4 2008 Altria Group, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.37 n/a $ 1.00 29-Jan BMO
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