Next week is week 9 (or is it 10) since the spike...it was at a similar period we saw the last decline after the very first new driven price spike.
Whilst timeing may or may not follw suit, a similar psycholgy follows, where temporaries exit, stuck traders churn for recovery points...and long termers pick up the stock from all the above.
The markets's demise has impacted the current spike decline more than was seen in the previous one...this will pass shortly.
Options are the leverage play...get the seismic sorted, release the field size...and this should be enough on its own to pay dividends through the options...if they manage production in this timeframe, which I suspect they will...then they will be a big ticket return item.
The company has enough money for immediate needs...and most projected expenditure, including their share of sesimic snd getting KIN-1 into production...after that, cash flow will change the landscape significantly.
In spite of income, I still suspect a decent drilling programme, with wells in SSW and indeed development wells in KN-1
Regardless of the cash-flow however, the company will be better placed to progress forward plans if they had extra cash...in this regard, the $15m options money will be more than enough to meet their needs.
Post options expiry, we are looking at a likely zero dilution future, with KN-1 in production, KN-2 likely to also be in production mid 2009 and potentially even KN-3 on the cards. Then of course SSW will be centre stage.
Their are risks of course...but I am prepared to take then given what is on offer.
I read someone suggested jack-up or offshore drilling as being a problem...lol...I can only wish we have this problem? If in fact we are facing expensive offshore drilling for KN-2 (we still only pay 20% mind you)...then I hope people realise the implications?
The deep water starts some 6km north of KN-1depths, directional drilling will reach out some 1.5km from a reef location...so, if deepwater drilling were required, it would only be because KN-1 was interpreted as extending some 8km or so north!
lol...give me such problems.
If so, KN-1 will eclipse Songo Songo...and we will become a takeover target anything less than a $200m market cap.
Lets not let agenda creep into these threads...you might think you are clever, but you are painfully transparent.
We all have our opinions...this is healhy...but said opinion does not need to be shoved down people throats...for when it does, it transforms into agenda.
This is an investment for me...as such, when she falls, I am happy to buy some more...will be lifting my buying rate this week, in expectation of a turn and potential for a significant run to develop within two weeks.
Cheers!
KEY Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)