GDY market cap: $255mill
Total funds required to build commercial scale 25MW plant: $270mill
Cash: $90mill
REDP funding: $90mill
Further grant funding expected (Geothermal drilling program): $7mill+
Additional Origin Energy commitment: $60mill+
Modest capital raising probably required in 2012, assuming technical milestones are met.
Bottom line: GDY's enterprise value at the moment is only around $65mill, which looks very cheap given non-dilutive funding sources now locked in. With a fully operational 25MW plant built by the end of 2013, and with govts craving carbon free base-load power, you'd have to be looking at an enterprise value in 2013 in the region of $700mill. In other words, assuming there are no debilitating technical set backs or massive cost blowouts (significant assumptions), it is not unrealistic to predict a return in the region of 1000% over the next 3 years.
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