In the middle of an up trend I am very suspicious when I see a...

In the middle of an up trend I am very suspicious when I see a wide range down bar on no news, because often they turn in to a 2 bar shakeout. In the same way I'm very wary of a wide range up bar in the middle of a down trend on no news, because often it turns in to a 2 bar upthrust- a reverse shakeout. Actually these can play out over longer than 2 days and when you look back at it on the weekly chart it looks like a single bar shakeout or upthrust.

I'm not saying todays up bar is definitely an upthrust, because it needs confirmation one way or the other. For me, it will need some follow through tomorrow to confirm today was "real" buying, and a decent volume close high on the bar and above 54.5 would probably do that. A lower close tomorrow would confirm that there was a lot of "hidden selling" in todays bar- after all if it was all strong buying pressure how could price close down the next day? And a close below 50 would be a strong sign of weakness and mean hang on to your hats and prepare for another leg down.

I hope today was the sign of a new buying push entering the market, but because there has been no signs of strength leading up to this I am wary. Hopefully this turns out to be the first sign of strength that kicks off a nice strong leg up. All I'm saying is that at the moment it might look like a duck and walk like a duck, but until it quacks tomorrow or even Monday if tomorrow is ambiguous- then I'm not calling it a duck yet.

Good luck all.