i assummed EPS of 1.36 for 2012 indicating circa 10% growth on...

i assummed EPS of 1.36 for 2012 indicating circa 10% growth on the forecast 2011 EPS instd of 1.44 which indicated an 18% growth rate

EPS of 1.36 gives us a forward PE of 11 on this stock

Now analyse the ROE, the ROA, the earnings stability, the cash flows and free cash flows (post divvys and capex), the divvy and divvy payout etc etc .....plug the figures into a valuation model and you tell me what price you can buy up to given u assume a 10% growth rate going forward for a few years and a PE circa 12

The stocks CHEAP AS CHIPS if it continues to grow at even 10% for the next 3-5 years and garners a PE of say 12

Run a basic model of this on excel and see for yourself

Theres no reason that the next 3-5 years wont garner an avg annualised growth of say 10% an average

Its still opening new stores, and very well managed and lets face it - if youre gonna buy a dvd, youre gonna buy it at JB. I for one cant be arsed buying simple things like 10-15dollar dvds over the internet. Theres a thing called 'spur of the moment' buying that many young ppl enjoy and derive gr8 utility from ;)

The youngsters will keep buying dvds; The kids will keep hassling mummy and daddy for dvds and games etc

I see a 10% avg annualised growth rate with a similar divvy and payout and ill give a PE of say 12; SO in 3 years time and five years tine what will the EPS be?? And what price would a PE of 12 garner

Itll be a valuation waaaaay above 15bucks;)

The analysts know this and the FUNDIES will run theor models and STOCK UP at some point

Its still the LEADER in it class and the one retail stock that all the super funds will keep buying

There would have to be a shocker of a result to drive it to 13bucks, or a mass downgrade for 2012

At EPS 1.45 for 2012 a PE 10 gives 14.50.
At EPS 1.36 for 2012 a PE 11 gives 15bucks; A PE 10 gives 13.60 BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO WARNING OR NO DOWNGRADE, so if we go by the current consensus, then 14.50 is the MAXIMUM LOW fundamentally.....even if 2012 grows at 10% then your paying 11 times earnings for 10% growth going forward

Its bloody CHEAP at these levels