Geez ALL ORDS... sometimes it's just a bit too hard to soothsay...

Geez ALL ORDS... sometimes it's just a bit too hard to soothsay the SP for KEY.

The reason it is so difficult in the near term is that the ASX is totally unfamiliar with East-African oil and gas exploration. If Key were to attain the same targets in Australia or the U.S. (250 BCF gas and 10mmbbs oil) then the SP would be well above $1. However the current prices for Tanzanian gas are sketchy ($7 for industrial and $2.50 for electricity). However one could argue that Key can expect a far great price than $2.50 for their gas since Tanzania is DESPERATE for any new gas to come online. IMHO Key will negotiate a greater price than $2.50 for their gas. The same goes for oil. Tanzania imports ALL their oil from foreign countries. They are DESPERATE for oil to come online. Moreover, Aminex PLC believe that there is an oil discovery waiting to be found offshore Tanzania - out of 26 wildcats drilled to date, 15 have encountered oil and/or has shows. There are also well documented surface oil seeps present along the coastal margine of Tanzania ('Some New Oil Seeps, and their Implications for the Petroleum Prospectivity of Offshore Southern Tanzania',Michael C.P Rego, Exploration Manager, Aminex PLC, London, England, 2003'). An oil discovery would heighten the whole prospectivity of the region - which would probably filter down to Key's SP.

And guessing the SP given success in Po Valley is silly IMHO. We do not even know the target of the Borsano#1 prospect outlined by the management. I know PVE have 60BCF 2P reserves in the Po Valley. Their market cap is $140 million. So I think you can hazzard a guess yourselves...

In conclusion, exploration success in Tanzania and a similar discovery to that of PVE in the Po Valley will see return on investment in the extreme IMHO.

Key have 86,000,000 shares.
Market cap = 86 million at SP $1.
Market cap = 172 million at SP $2.
Current market cap = 22 million.