It's an interesting phenomenon, I think that Kibaran's price action this year merely confirms that outside of the top 300 ASX companies, the Australian sharemarket is not efficient to any degree. This isn't surprising, unlike the USA, Australia doesn't have a significant institutional investor base focused on nano and small-caps. This leads Kibaran's share register to be overrepresented by "weak hands" who personify Graham's Mr Market. As mentioned in my original post, I expect the share price to rise once financing is secured as more and more weak hands sell their shares to institutions. This is great news because one can still generate alpha in Australia if your stomach can cope with the volatility.
Responding to various posts, out of the world's top 37 graphite hopefuls, there are many great speculations but Kibaran is the best investment based upon fundamental research. All fundamental researchers here know this and the other opinions are white noise.
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Some pertinent quotes:
"I never new a speculator who didn't end up broke." - Victor Neiderhoffer
"There are some who speculate mainly on the basis of commodities charts and technical analysis. They swear by various mathematical models and theories. Good luck to them. Frankly, in my experience, I have known few people who have gotten rich off technical analysis. (I do know people who have made a lot of money selling technical analysis or books about it.)" - Jim Rogers
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Reminiscences of A Stock Operator on not losing your position:
Listening to the (repeated daily) advice of an old stager in the offices of Fullerton, it suddenly dawned on him why he was making less profit than he should. Whatever question the old fellow – known to everyone as Turkey although his real name was Partridge – was asked about the market, he would reply, “well, it’s a bull market”.
At first Livermore thought this was a mere platitude. Hearing “It’s a Bull Market” daily, he began thinking about it more. Then, listening to a conversation between Turkey and Elmer Harwood – a young trader – he realized that it was more than a platitude – it was the missing piece in his own education.
Elmer: “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”
Turkey: “Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!”
Elmer: “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, “I have just sold every share I owned!”
Turkey: “No! No! I can’t do that!”
Elmer: “Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”
Turkey: “You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.
Elmer: And didn’t that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”
Turkey: “It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”
Elmer: “Why not?”
Turkey: “Why, this is a bull market!” (The old fellow said it as though he had given a detailed explanation.)
Elmer: “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”
Turkey: “My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be? And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.” - Reminiscences of A Stock Operator
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