Friday's deadline for the Share Purchase Plan (SPP) has passed,...

Friday's deadline for the Share Purchase Plan (SPP) has passed, so all eyes are on Wednesday July 8th, being the scheduled date of the SPP announcement result.

With the issue price being $11.45, now seems a good time to whip out the VPVR chart (Volume Profile Visible Range). It shows that the Point of Control (the spot price with the highest volume) was $13.38, or about 17% above the issue price:

Those inclined to short KGN are in a minority. According to Shortman, the most recent available data shows that less than 1% of the stock has been shorted. This compares to over 6% in early April:


Some posts have suggested that the SPP will be oversubscribed, and therefore scaled back. I agree with the first half (oversubscribed), but am not fully convinced with the second half (scaled back). The SPP booklet has left things open: "Kogan intends to raise approximately $15 million under the SPP (subject to Kogan’sdiscretion to increase this cap and accept oversubscriptions and/or scale backapplications)."

It's not a like-for-like comparison, but National Australia Bank announced this for its SPP back in May: "Given the strong support shown by Eligible Shareholders for the SPP, NAB decided to increase the SPP size by A$750 million above its original target of A$500 million, raising a total amount of A$1.25 billion under the SPP." (https://www.nab.com.au/about-us/shareholder-centre/share-purchase-plan).

My gut feeling is that Kogan won't be the conservative type to neatly accept $15 million and leave it at that. Looking back at the June 10th investor presentation, page 10 refers to "opportunistic M&A", while page 11 refers to "our accelerated business acquisition model". These strategies work best if the SPP cap is increased.