I think all of what you say is fair Ant.
Hopefully this time, and given when the presentation was delivered, being right on break-even really means that.
The graph showing the rise in EBITDA was interesting from AS once the break-even level was hit.
If it is any consolation, my feel is that the working capital facility from Noble would not have been provided unless it was confident that cashflow budgets from Surda would be hit and the facility would be repaid.
The fixed price contract, like you, still interests me. Many questions. Is it fixed price per se? Or are there steps such that if the LME price was to take a material fall, then our sell price would be hit also?
Certainly we don't see any upside because of the fixed price arrangement, but do we see any down side when there is downward price pressure?
It's possible that this is why we were issued a licence and not a lease over the area. The licence covers the eventuality in case copper prices really fall through the floor (because there's a fixed price arrangement in place). The positive is that there are serious supply bottlenecks forecast for the next five years or so in copper.
Would be really nice to somehow get hold of the lease though to guarantee security of tenure.
BUSH
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