On another thread I have pointed out that CSL is on a current price to earning multiple of 60x
vaccines is obviously a very big global market, but the margins look much slimmer based on CSL gross revenues/profit.
From what I can gather, assuming trials for the kidney drug do come up ‘trumps’ (can we please find another word for such successes?) the kidney drug could be in the market as early as 2030 (and do please correct me if I’m wrong)
If we are sitting here around 2028/2029 Medicine trial programs that are looking like the drug will be commercially successful (a bit like RP 11 is looking right now), what would be a fair prospective price earnings multiple?
I’m thinking only 10x ,,, because investors may not initially believe the potential margins and gross market revenues/penetration forcast.
assuming above, I arrive at the conclusion now that this kidney drug (after the most important successful trials ticked off) could be valued on the Australian market at ~$100 billion valuation by 2029. (and that ignoring the contribution of eye drugs etc)
i think that currently equates to $20 per share on pre consolidation 20 cents ptice (and $200 per share post consolidation)
a great deal of water to pass under the bridge over the next 4 years, but I will certainly not be losing sight of that target price.
call me a crazy optimist if you like, but show me where I am making any fundamentally wrong assumptions please?
- the drug has been tested on lab grown human diseased tissue and also donated amputates patient kidneys (people going onto full time dialysis) and it must have indicated it works. - toxicity tests have also been trialled on primates at materially higher volumes than would ever be injected into humans (and no evidence identified of issues)
so to date … the drug seems it should work on the human disease … there is no competition and and there is unlikely to be toxicity issues.
what else should we be looking out for in this process please Medicine Man et al?
PYC Price at posting:
20.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)