A nation like China is not going to risk its security and rising position amongst the worlds nations by shutting down domestic iron ore mines in response to the big iron ore miner's tactic of pushing more iron ore into the market. They will not leave themselves totally vulnerable to the potential for other nations to disrupt the passage of seaborne iron in the event of a military conflict. It is not a question of economics, it is a question of state security. The big iron ore miners will just end up driving down the price of their own ore and on a trading level will make Chinese steel manufacturers more competitive, putting pressure on other nations to impose tariffs on Chinese steel. That's why the biggest steel producer in the world ArcelorMittal has almost completed its goal of becoming fully integrated, that is, owning and mining 100% of its required iron ore inputs.
The iron ore industry will have to start learning from industries like oil, diamonds, potash etc, that the only way to control prices in an oversupplied market is collusion, with a healthy dose of production cut backs. Unfortunately the CEO's of Australian miners are arrogant grandiose people who have ruled the world for far to long and are not used to eating humble pie. They are in for a hard lesson. As far as SDL goes, generally the axe is wielded in this order; exploration, green-fields development projects, marginal operations, cut backs to existing production. Between the ebola virus and the shrinking iron ore price, the picture for African iron ore is starting to look bleak. Take a look at how London Mining and African Minerals are travelling nowadays. Sure you've got the best, lowest cost deposit in all of Africa, but SDL will need to be able to walk on water to beat the odds that are starting to stack up against it.
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