Welllllll....the balance sheet value for ISO is $US2,800/kg to derive a NTA/share of $1.25 from the recent 4B. Note the 'T' for Tangible there, which is $839m of biological assets vs $294m of intangibles (deferred management fees and Santalis intangibles).
Soooo....the current share price of $1.07 crudely implies an oil price of ~$US2,400/kg.
I understand the panic investors can feel at being underwater, but can someone seriously explain to me why they think QIN might be heading to $0.00? The Glaucus research IMHO was good pulp fiction...they even poached comments from Hot Copper in their 2nd release!
For me the key points are:
1. Indian Sandalwood sales are going to be a minor contributor to group earnings for at least half a decade. When we start to get +1,000t of heartwood to sell every year that's when we will see what a 'market' price is
2. Plantation investments have been made by external investors for almost two decades. So these investments are going to come to a halt this year?
3. The company has plenty of cash with debt facilities maturing in 2023. So the company shouldn't go broke because it can't pay its bills
I mean, sure the China customer is a screw-up, but at the end of the day the fact that demand for Indian Sandalwood in China is sufficient a smuggling ring to operate does show there is a big market for QIN to tap into....and saying that because one customer (out of the many that QIN will need to develop to absorb demand for 12,000ha of production over the next 15 years) was a stuff up invalidates QIN's entire business is like saying a trader is going to lose all their funds because the first trade was a loss. (BTW, notice that QIN got paid up front...they ain't stupid).
Or if your opinion is that the QIN has committed fraud, fine, get out of the stock right now! Hit that Sell button and be thankful you got out while you still could. Seriously....don't wait to post on HC, if you genuinely think mgt are fraudulent you need to sell. Those of you who have been around for long enough should remember when GNS, GTP, TIM went bust.
And of course there's the argument that the share price is saying something very bad. Fair enough
I must acknowledge it's easier for me to not be as affected by the shareprice fall as I got in a long time ago and my investment time horizon is waaaay beyond most, and I've been to Kununurra and toured the facilities and understand what the operations people are doing.
Of course I might be sitting here in 6 months time with a share price of $0.00 on my QIN investment, and that is my responsibility.
But as far as I can see, anyone who needs to make $$ from an investment in QIN in the nearer term has been unfortunately caught up in a big-end-of-town game. Ugly
QIN Price at posting:
$1.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
