KKR PREPARES BID, page-67

First 67 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Master Spock

1,051 Posts.

50

31/03/17

10:12

Post #: 23761623
Share

Originally posted by bookend ↑

I'm curious Master Spock about your investment thesis. Looks like you purchased around the same time I did so I presume your entry price was ~50c?

At this time:
1. TFC hadn't conclusively shown that their trees had commercial grades of oil vs 3 completed harvests now...
2. The company had <1,000ha of ownership of trees vs +3,000ha now...
3. It was paying 11% interest on its notes vs 8.5% now...
4. Pricing for new plantations was ~20% lower than what it can command today...

and you are taking your profits now? Yes you have doubled your funds over 5 years, but given the lowering of operational and finance risk aren't you leaving substantial potential profits over the next 5 years behind?

I've gone through the Glaucus material and as I've previously commented on HC they don't have a good command of QIN. Nice work there stumbling on the China customer issue, but their original thesis was that the customer wasn't real, not that the customer was a massive smuggling ring (which supports the idea of substantial demand in China).

And with Frank Wilson leaving, after building this business for 2 decades do you think he's not going to want a piece of the action in return for helping a takeover? He's stated he wants to come back after a takeover and return to the CEO role; you don't think he can demand (and pay for) a minority stake within a successful bidding consortium. Then he can spend his time on the business instead of having to go to meeting after meeting after meeting with fund managers.

I'm not trying to be snarky here. I had to overcome considerable fear to make my initial purchase given so many unknowns and I presume you were similar. This turmoil has made me re-visit my investment thesis and I'm staying with the stock. So why bail now?

Expand

I am still here Mr Bookend

QIN Price at posting: $1.04 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

EMD

Emyria's Empax Centre chosen for mental health clinical trial

STX

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

SBW

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

ASX Market Update: Shares fall flat as GYG soars on debut | 20 June, 2024

FHE

Frontier Energy achieves key milestone for Waroona energy project

AML

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

Plagues precede widespread power shifts. We’re living in one – and minerals are at the fore

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

BRX

Belararox delineates another porphyry in Argentina at Tambo South

RDN

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing