I don't hold this stock but have posted on graphite in other stocks, and I posted here in the past once - Post #:67882539. The below may help yourselves out - with low SOI this stock may fly if get decent graphite hits.
Grade and mesh size
TGC of 7% - 12% is pretty good if can get that on a larger scale to underpin a mining reserve. I posted on understanding graphite in this post and might be useful info for those looking at graphite stocks, with this post providing a lot of detail on mesh sizes and how graphite is processed etc etc - refer Post #:51768438
Demand and number of mines and quality
The basis to the above:
1. You need 1kg graphite (i.e. equivalent spherical basis) per kWh. 2. Average battery size is 60 kWh - that is your NCA and NCM batteries 8/2/2 -Post #:56985829 3. The mix of synthetic versus spherical graphite is 50/50 - this post explains this -Post #:51768438.
So if your demand say by 2030 is 5 LCE TWh, then this translates to roughly 85 million EVs per year produced, which equates to a PSG need of 2.5 mtpa. Clearly there is a lot of growth for graphite mines, and those then converting that graphite to PSG.
Clearly if the mix of synthetic to spherical graphite is lower, then you need more graphite mine. If battery sizes are smaller also need slightly less mines. The below is the same pic but with battery size 45 kWh. Lower battery size also means to get 85 million EVs per year now takes LCE TWh of about 3.8.
Obviously EV forecasts are a key to, but some basic numbers for others to work with.
Pricing:
For me it is difficult to fathom why the PSG price is where it is today given the impending shortfall - referPost #:69169743- but would appear at this stage industry sees benefits of synthetic graphite over natural graphite (maybe in terms of lifespan and efficiency although Mitsubishi Chemicals is working out ways to close those gaps as posted by another poster a short while ago - referPost #:69174062-) which might relate to price and performance here, although synthetic graphite certainly isn't great on the ESG front.
Graphite is not a large component cost in batteries btw, although is a large component part of a battery. So at the end of the day it does boil down to Europe/US/Japan/Korea actually doing something positive to break China's monopoly on the EV market. China's natural graphite is also quite low quality hence environmental impacts (and more so impact on EV efficiency in batteries). Let alone the ESG costs when they use synthetic graphite to natural graphite. Prices will ultimately rise because you need as much graphite in a battery as much as LCE (unless you can transition graphite out of the anodes of batteries which is unlikely to happen in your every day EV batteries (higher end EVs might use solid state batteries but they are still largely conceptual in nature IMO) - just depends when (i.e. just need to look at lithium prices to understand that because at the end of the day a lithium ion battery needs around 0.9 - 1gram graphite and LCE per kWh etc etc, let alone the other needs.
Lithium is a far bigger cost in batteries than graphite - referPost #:66330003
Some other info you may find interesting or no
1.Input cost of lithium in batteries:Post #:66330003This post explains how much value lithium has in a battery. 2. Input cost of graphite in batteries:Post #:66724229andPost #:66719548These posts do the apple to apple conversions so one can understand the input cost of graphite in batteries, compared to lithium. It is much lower than lithium, and that in part IMO explains why people may not understand graphite itself, noting on a kg per kWh basis you need a lot of graphite in a battery and is a key to NCM and NCA batteries in particular.
3.This post is about China's poor quality resource, and why ESG might matter -Post #:51384197All the best with the investment. Post didn't take long to do - just a mish mesh of info I have posted previously which is easy enough to pull together for a quick post.
(20min delay)