Knowns & Unknowns

It seems to me the only thing the market wants to know about NAGs relates to the PASS Status - if & when there will be Contracts. While I think there is much more to NAGs then just the PASS, the fixation on it, is probably quite understandable, considering many recent shareholders have bought for the PASS alone.

So what are the knowns re PASS. My lists has the following (but I may have missed some):

1) NAGs has 2 pits with 6m tonnes capacity
2) NAGs has EPA approval to take PASS
3) NAGs has the infrastructure to take PASS - weighbridge, all weather roads etc
4) The PASS storage at NAGs is Industry "best practice"
5) Melbourne has 3 "approved" Infrastructure Projects, starting from 2018
6) These 3 Prijects will produce 4m tonnes+/- of PASS.
6) Melb has other planned Infrastructure Projects eg MMR2.
7) Hard PASS from Melb Hi Rise Bldgs is not currently being disposed of as PASS.
8) The "timing" of decision re PASS Contracts is difficult to predict.
9) To date, NAGs has not gained or lost any of the Infrastructure PASS Contracts
10) The PreWorks PASS, will need PASS Contracts in place, before they produce PASS - about Oct 2017.

The unknowns are:
1) "When" contracts will be awarded - eg PreWorks could be today or July or whatever but needs to be before PASS disposal starts.
2) Whether NAGs will be sucessful in gaining PASS Contracts
3) Whether there is any other facility that can take millions of tonnes of EPA approved PASS (no such facility is known?)
4) What price is likely to be a successful bid for the PASS.
5) What part "back loading" will play in relation to contracts.

So it seems to me the major issue is "timing"? When will we hear! Thats an unknown & we can't do much about it.

We can - be patient (which keeps the door open for future gains, if we wait long enough), whinge (which won't change anything) or sell out (which crystalises losses). Thats just the way I see it.