KoBold Makes Offer for Congo Lithium as Country Courts US, page-968

First 968 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
farmhouse

1,033 Posts.

129

08/05/25

09:40

Post #: 78963314
Share
Originally posted by DeFaucon: ↑

groks version (less all the calculations etc!)

6. Final Estimate: $ Per Share
Base Valuation: $1.5 billion for AVZ’s 75% stake ÷ 3.5 billion shares = $0.43 USD per share.
With Premium: Applying a 60% premium (midpoint of web ID: 0’s 54%–73%) to a hypothetical $0.51 USD share price gives $0.82 USD per share.
Optimistic Scenario: X user
@TEN15TENNIS
’s $2 USD reflects high optimism, possibly factoring in Manono’s strategic value to the U.S. and long-term lithium demand. This implies a $7 billion valuation for AVZ ($2 × 3.5 billion shares), or a $9.33 billion project valuation—high but not implausible given KoBold’s $1 billion+ commitment and U.S. geopolitical interests.
Realistic Range: Considering the web analysis ($0.78–$0.98 USD), DRC risks, and shareholder expectations, a buyout range of $0.80–$1.50 USD per share is reasonable. The midpoint, $1.15 USD, balances Manono’s value with market and geopolitical realities.
7. My Recommendation
Buyout Estimate: I estimate KoBold might offer $1.00–$1.20 USD per share, equivalent to $1.54–$1.85 AUD (at 0.65 AUD/USD). This aligns with the web analysis’s $1.20–$1.50 AUD range, adjusted for 2025 conditions, and offers a 96%–135% premium over the last known share price of $0.51 USD ($0.78 AUD).
Rationale:
Manono’s strategic importance and KoBold’s $1 billion commitment justify a premium.
The $1.5 billion valuation for AVZ’s stake, with a 60%–100% premium, supports this range.
Shareholder expectations (
@TEN15TENNIS
’s $2 USD) are optimistic but reflect the project’s long-term potential, tempered by DRC risks and lithium price volatility.
Likelihood of Acceptance: At $1.00–$1.20 USD, shareholders are likely to accept, as it exceeds the web analysis’s target of $0.88 USD ($1.35 AUD) and offers significant relief after years of uncertainty. However, if KoBold offers below $1.00 USD, shareholders may push back, given the project’s scale and strategic value.
Conclusion
Based on the valuation of Manono, AVZ’s stake, market conditions, and stakeholder sentiment, I estimate a buyout price of $1.00–$1.20 USD per share for AVZ Minerals. This range balances the project’s immense potential with the risks of operating in the DRC and current lithium market dynamics. It also aligns with the web analysis and shareholder expectations, offering a substantial premium to reflect Manono’s strategic importance in the global energy transition. However, the final price will depend on negotiations, which could push the offer higher if KoBold prioritizes securing the asset swiftly.

Expand

Pfff. LOL. Well, that's real-world intelligence for you!
AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

ASX Market Open: Stocks slide as Trump tosses up attacking Iran directly | June 20

PIQ

Proteomics notches up as company launches PromarkerD into the US

Week 25 Wrap: Fed & BoE pause rates ahead of RBA; Santos-ADNOC, Oz tax reforms

NVO

Novo flags antimony and gold in the Pilbara – but does it need to step back?

Friday’s HotCopper trends: Dreadnoughts's drill delight, Galan's beaut raise | June 19

Thursday's HotCopper trends: Second Amplia response, Race combo dosing | June 19

HotCopper Highlights for Week 25: 4DS Memory, Meeka & Sprott-citement

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

PV1

Hydrogen tanker stock Provaris inks MOU with "K" LINE to provide advice

AL3

AML3D opens new facility in Ohio as US Defence strategy bears fruit

First 968 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

KoBold Makes Offer for Congo Lithium as Country Courts US, page-968

Top Stories

ASX Market Open: Stocks slide as Trump tosses up attacking Iran directly | June 20

Proteomics notches up as company launches PromarkerD into the US

Week 25 Wrap: Fed & BoE pause rates ahead of RBA; Santos-ADNOC, Oz tax reforms

Novo flags antimony and gold in the Pilbara – but does it need to step back?

Friday’s HotCopper trends: Dreadnoughts's drill delight, Galan's beaut raise | June 19

Thursday's HotCopper trends: Second Amplia response, Race combo dosing | June 19

HotCopper Highlights for Week 25: 4DS Memory, Meeka & Sprott-citement

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

Hydrogen tanker stock Provaris inks MOU with "K" LINE to provide advice

AML3D opens new facility in Ohio as US Defence strategy bears fruit

Featured News