KGN

1.50%

$4.73 kogan.com ltd

Kogan, really cheap given the growth profile, page-26

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saintex

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10/08/20

11:19

Post #: 46420490
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Originally posted by saintex: ↑

Based on the figures they just published, Kogan has an EV/EBITDA of 13.6 X. Rather cheap for its profile.
EBITDA of 7 m $/month may be inflated given the recent market conditions for ecommerce.
If we look at H1 FY 20 (more normal market conditions), they have a free cash flow yield of 2.6 %. Once again, very decent for a company able to grow its top line by 16 %, with stable operating costs.

They have really a scarce profile : only 2 % market share in the ecommerce sector in Australia, which has been growing by 15 % to 20 % per year before the recent acceleration. So, the growth potential remains very significant, while the company has already decent margin and free cash flow.
What's interesting with them : you are not just investing in the ecommerce sector in Australia, you also bet on the success of their platform launched in March 2019 and their very low cost (cost of doing business = 10 % of sales).

Interesting to see that the 2 founders and the director, who sold in August 2019 at respectively 5.75 $ and 6 $, are now trying to buy back aggressively via LTI for the 2 founders and on the market for the director (at 8.40 $).

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Based on the adjusted EBITDA for July annualised, Kogan had an EV/EBITDA of 15.3 x this morning (at 18.81 $).
The valuation continues to look OK.

KGN Price at posting: $20.03 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $4.73		Change 0.070(1.50%)		Mkt cap ! $474.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$4.64	$4.75	$4.56	$1.953M	419.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	31	$4.72

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$4.75	2200	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	6311	4.680
1	3145	4.670
1	5000	4.660
1	300	4.640
1	8613	4.630

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.750	100	1
4.800	3375	4
4.810	6484	1
4.830	1620	1
4.850	1251	4

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KGN (ASX) Chart

Kogan, really cheap given the growth profile, page-26

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Kogan, really cheap given the growth profile, page-26

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