KP2 Discussion, page-272

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Quest09

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14/07/24

16:48

Post #: 74746625
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Originally posted by bubwell: ↑

Hi all, there has been quite a bit of good information and speculation posted here, so time for my two cents.
Like some here I have been patiently invested in this for at least a couple years adding to the holding when I feel some of the risk has reduced a bit. As you know a lot of the risk or hazards involved with KP2 have diminished significantly lately.
Something which occupies some of my idle time is how to value this company given what we know. The pfs for Kola is 12yrs old now but the Chinese have undoubtedly updated that to their satisfaction. DX project pfs is only 4yrs old and of course both are very rosy. Comparison with HFR and some Canadian companies for example gets me a little way, but it comes down to comparing apples with oranges. When we think how much money BHP is spending in Canada and AngloAmerican is sinking into it's Woodsmith project, it screams out that potash is a serious commodity. duh Try doing a P/NAV calculation on this project, pretty confusing results.
Looking at the chart doesn't add any meaningful information I think. Another way to think of a target price is to see it from chairman Hathorn's eyes. For all his good work and capital risk he would want a good payday, maybe 5 times what he put in? That puts us around 10 cents i suppose, but I think it would have legs for more without any good reasons to give here. MC would be around $400m by then, not ridiculous. Also am predicting cap raise of maybe $10-15m soonish, which is only 10% of today's mc.
My opinion too is that DX will be carved off somehow as a separate and valuable asset sometime after this other deal happens. Hathorn will be looking forward to retiring to the Guernsey Isle with his 8% of the company, but in the meantime, as many here have said he would have some major input into a takeover price if that comes.
Anyway, babbling now. Decided to get back on HC after many years hiatus. Too many morons back then it seemed to me.

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Im more inclined towards these types of valuations. Discussion links on valuations below (TLDR: discussions indicate a price between 25c to 50c per share):

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74127497/single

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/73219227/single

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/73573637/single

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74053039/single

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74054211/single

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74090862/single

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74129532/single

Also, i didnt manage to listen into the last GM, but a friend of mine did and mentioned that he thought he heard David H say that he eventually wanted KP2 to trade on the LSE main trading exchange board which is exclusive to established 'blue chip or non-spec type companies' (instead of the current situation of KP2 trading on the minor LSE AIM exchange for specs).

If David H did in fact say this, then this also indicates a significant company valuation for KP2 is in the mind of KP2 Directors.

KP2 Price at posting: 2.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 3.6¢		Change 0.001(2.86%)		Mkt cap ! $25.45M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.6¢	3.6¢	3.6¢	$6.526K	181.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	578521	3.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.6¢	124150	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	578521	0.035
1	1000000	0.034
2	2000000	0.033
2	1098240	0.032
2	71222	0.031

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.036	124150	2
0.037	627619	2
0.039	430310	3
0.040	266715	4
0.041	347500	1

Last trade - 10.04am 26/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

KP2 (ASX) Chart

KP2 Discussion, page-272

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