KORE POTASH PLC (ASX:KP2) - KP2 Discussion, 73953802, page-38 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

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Quest09

828 Posts.

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22/05/24

13:04

Post #: 73953802
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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

Check out the % holdings of the top 20 shareholders.

The % holdings of substantial holders also shown below.

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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

IMO it's a big positive to have a high % of the company owned by the top 20 shareholders (82.3% in Kp2), and also a big positive to have a high % of substantial holders in ownership (50.3% in kp2).

Top 2 shareholders in KP2 are Princess Aurora Company (The Bank of New York - Nominees) and SQM. Princess Aurora Company and SQM together hold about 30% of KP2.
Princess Aurora Company (PAC) is owned by the Oman Investment Authority (OIA), which is responsible for managing the country of Oman's Sovereign Wealth Fund (which basically means the OIA invests Oman government money for the future benefit of the country, and they decided to buy a bunch of KP2 shares).
SQM (Sociedad Quimica y Minr de Chile) is a multi billion dollar South American company (Mcap of ~$14 billion, Revenue of ~ $3 billion pa) which trades in selling fertilizer (SQM also decided to buy a bunch of KP2 shares, and coincidently KP2 is about to start building a fertilizer mine which has easy access to South America).
David Hathorn, Chairman of KP2, is also a major holder through direct share ownership and through various trusts and institutions.

Some of the benefits:
Large shareholders and institutional shareholders have the resources and time to carry out significant and deep analysis on the companies they choose to invest in. Obviously institutional investors want best return on investment, so when a company has a large portion of it owned by institutional investors, it can be a sign of a good investment (although market risks are always present for all shareholders, no matter their size).

Large shareholders and institutional shareholders tend to have better access to the Board of Directors of the companies they invest in, and can therefore "keep them honest", provide oversight, and keep them on track (SQM has a representative on the KP2 Board of Directors, and OIA have a non-Board representative who is involved in oversight).

Large shareholders and institutional shareholders have access to big money, so capital raising and funding is often much easier to organise and achieve (as mentioned SQM is a multi-billion dollar company and Oman is a wealthy mid-east country).

In the case of SQM, it seems that SQM has taken an interest in KP2 because it wants to secure a future supply of potash from the mine, so this could lead to a big Offtake Agreement once the EPC contract is signed.

Needless to say that it's a very good sign when the Chairman of the KP2 owns a significant amount of shares in the company. The Chairman has access to the most up to date and in depth info on the company, and so if the Chairman is buying up big on KP2 shares, then i assume he is doing so because he has strong belief in the success of the company.

There are many more reasons that could be discussed, but the above is a start to get the conversation going. Feel free to add your opinions and thoughts.

All the above is in my opinion only. DYOR.

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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

In addition to the above attached and of note, SQM, who is a top 2 major shareholder in KP2 is also a top shareholder in Azure Minerals (AZS).

As mentioned in the above attachment, SQM trades and sells fertilizer, so it makes sense that SQM would invest in a good quality fertilizer mining company in order to secure a good supply of fertilizer (potash).

SQM also trades and sells lithium. IMO that is why SQM is also a top shareholder of Azure Minerals (AZS), so that they can secure a supply of lithium for their company (see below image).

Interestingly, AZS did particularly well as a company in the last calendar year (see chart below). AZS shares went up about 2000% (or 20x) during 2023 between about January and November (see chart below). Price went from approx. $0.20c to approx. $4.00 at their peak (Mkt cap now about 1.6 billion dollars).

I do hope KP2 can replicate the 2000% (or 20x) increase in share price which AZS was able to achieve in the last calendar year (see chart below). They are both great and massive projects, and both have SQM as a substantial shareholder and a major backer, so that is at least a start.

GLTAH and DYOR.

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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

High grade resource with a production cost which is among the lowest in the industry (USD $102/t MoP - see below image).

Project NPV is off the charts also:

At an MoP price of USD $360/t, project NPV is USD $1.6 billion (~ AUD $2.5 billion).

At an MoP price of USD $500/t, project NPV is USD 3.3 billion (~AUD $5 billion).

Expand

Will SQM (major shareholder of KP2) repeat history and put in a take-over offer for KP2 in the near future.? A real possibility IMO.

Could the take-over offer be in the billions considering KP2's project scale and project NPV..?

See above and below attachments for more details.

DYOR. GLTAH.

Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

From the Quarterly Announcement, 29 April 2024:

"The Company is meeting PowerChina senior officials in Beijing in early May 2024 to materially progress the finalisation of the EPC contract."

"To materially progress the finalisation of the EPC contract". Does that mean contract signing will occur in "early May 2024".? Pretty much within the next two weeks.

Also:

"The Consortium has advised that the financing proposal for the total construction cost of Kola will be provided to the Company within six weeks of the execution of the EPC Contract."

Financing to be provided within 6 weeks of signing the EPC contract.

GLTAH =)

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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

Andre Baya, CEO of KP2, will be presenting at the Junior INDABA for African Explores, Developers, and Investors in Mining in Johannesburg today/tonight.
As per below screenshot, Andre will be presenting on why KP2 is poised to become the best investment in the field.

IMO, KP2 has potential to become the best performing investment on the ASX this year.

DYOR. GLTAH

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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

Once the Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract is signed, and once the project funding is announced (funding is expected with 6 weeks of signing the EPC), then project construction will begin...

I wonder if SQM (major shareholder) would at that point put in a take-over offer for KP2 in order to secure a massive supply of potash at industry low prices for its business.?

We have seen SQM do this before in the lithium mining industry (SQM also deals in lithium as per above attachment).

All those events have the potential of occurring this year if things go well.

If so, i can imagine the take-over price would have to be epic considering the project NPV (also shown in above attachment).

DYOR. GLTAH.

Expand
KP2 Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 3.3¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $23.51M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.2¢	3.3¢	3.2¢	$4.906K	153.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	170888	3.2¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.4¢	23334	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	170888	0.032
2	270967	0.031
4	650002	0.030
1	500000	0.029
2	520000	0.028

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.034	23334	1
0.035	952	2
0.036	200000	1
0.040	50000	1
0.043	40000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 18/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

KP2 (ASX) Chart