In an attempt to give some validity to your back-the-envelope numbers I had a look at Mosaic. They are at about US$9b mcap and produce around 8mt/y of potash which is about 2/3 of income (phosphate is the rest). Anyway, if Kola is aiming at 2mt/y output that should be around 1/5 or 1/4 mc of Mosaic which is the US$2b mark with all other things being equal.
So there you go. Very rough calculations, and lots of other considerations to take into account but just emphasizes the potential here.
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