TZL 13.6% 2.5¢ tz limited

You have seen my assumptions in the last couple of days and the...

  1. 1,373 Posts.
    You have seen my assumptions in the last couple of days and the conclusion that the likely placement price is of the order mentioned by Klaas. The size of the markets being addressed provide the expectation that growth in market penetration will greatly increase the applied pe. That will underpin the price paid at placement by CS clients (and hopefully our good selves although I doubt it). We have after all had ample opportunities to top up so I expect all placed shares to be offered in 4 or 5 large tranches of perhaps 1 M shares. Again, that is what I would do if in their position. It is obviously true that the risk is eliminated at placement since we will all see clearly what the underlying assumptions are and can readily determine the likelihood of a large uplift in value at listing as the pe rises to match the expected growth curve. I expect a placement at the sort of pe applying on the ASX, say 15 or so while the price readjusts on NASDAQ with a pe 2-3 times higher. That alone should still increase in the early stages after listing (2-3 years) as platform orders are announced (and again these announcements will not necessarily mention any names but be in the form that DF used in his recent broadcast interview).

    So, Para, am I still as bullish despite some who maintain current risk outweighs potential rewards? No, because I have performed extensive DD and am now more confident than ever!

    We know the CS and QVT timetable of involvement with TZ will limit the IPO time to before Christmas 08. Some will not be confident until they receive a bank guarantee but they will just have to buy in at the very end if they can. No doubt they will trumpet at the time that they were always believers! The difference is that the true believers are heavily involved within their capacities, and some are even technically well beyond while the others dip in a querulous toe at best and so have greatly reduced returns (within their means). That's just human nature. To the bold go the spoils, the rest can glean the fields of the leftover grain.
 
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