The secondary (maybe should be primary) issue is that if the 90% of impacted plantations experience material losses, then the entire economic case for building export infrastructure to monetise the 'stranded asset' of standing plantation timber on the island changes.
As a stylised example, if an investment case is built on 100 logs p.a., the question is at what point does spending the capital cease to make sense? Is it 90 logs? 80? 70?
The present value effect on whatever the deadweight loss is (i.e. after net insurance proceeds) will also be material. Essentially the cash flow profile goes from a hectare of standing pine/eucalyptus ready for harvest to a hectare of land which needs to be cleared, replanted, and grown for a couple of decades to get back to a harvest-able stage. If a critical % of the hectares end up like that, then the whole previous investment logic falls over.
KPT Price at posting:
$1.96 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
