"According to the DFS, dysprosium oxide revenues were to account for 60% of the company's total revenues. With dysprosium down 69% from the $684/kg. assumption, it is safe to say that over 40% of the company's assumed revenues are gone."
"The company reports A$38/kg of TREO ($27/kg) in estimated operating costs. Note that this isn't for separated oxides, but for a concentrate, which is worth less than the separated oxides."
"Production is expected to come in at 3,000 - 3,400 tonnes per year during the full years of its operating life. This is not enough to justify the capex of A$329 million ($240 million). When we add in sustaining capex (this includes a lot in years 1 & 2 which suggest that this is merely residual capex that was pushed into the future to increase the NPV slightly) it is clear that the project--as outlined in the DFS--simply doesn't work at today's prices."
"These numbers are awful."
"We wanted to factor this into our optimistic scenario, but we're left in the dark on too many issues: initial capex changes, sustaining capex changes, opex changes...etc."
"Yttrium has effectively become a waste product since the cost of preparing it for the market costs more than its market price."
"Given these two quantifiable improvements we've decided to calculate the Project's NPV again to provide investors with an "optimistic" scenario at current prices."
"The improvements simply aren't enough to make this project attractive even if we simply go by what the company is saying without having proven it."
Quickly now ltl's, better get on to him and let him know he has no idea what he's talking about, particularly before family & friends find it.
NTU Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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