I disagree that there hasn’t been a lot of blatant upramping.
Eg. Repeated talk of >$100m revenue in the first year and doubling with the second cluster. 85% net profit margin etc.
This just isn’t reasonable. The very best global tech companies that reach $100m in revenue take more than 5 years to get there and they are few and far between.
85% Net profit margin is unheard of. If revenue does grow quickly then they won’t be profitable for years because it wouldn’t make sense to hold back on investing aggressively in new satellite clusters and software algorithms.
It is a new market. We don’t really know how much people are prepared to pay for this type of data vs say high resolution satellite imagery. What if the illegal fishers respond by not transmitting on their radio when they know the satellites are over head?
A lot of market cap comparisons with Hawkeye 360 to justify price. They are a private company. A VC valuation comes with liquidation preferences and lots of terms for downside protection. The valuations can’t compare with a public company.
It is very cool that the satellites are deployed and it was exciting to watch. But launch had a low risk of failure compared to the commissioning of the satellites.
The coming months are the technically risky part of the mission. I’ll take my hat of to them if they pull it off. It is very cool tech.
The promoters have built up and sold a story to help the company meet its short term capital requirements.
its now managements job to try and execute that story and grow into a company worthy of a $100m+ valuation. A difficult job for anyone. The promoters likely won’t stick around to see if this works out IMO.
Good luck to holders.
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