kt 4169m & beyond

Here are my thoughts on the status quo at KT1, after their last reported depth of 4169m & running of the 7" liner.

I am not sure about hitting TD yet, since we dont have actual ROP figure to work with, for the 6" hole (i.e rate of penetration, ROP m/day) & I dont want to use P1 drillrate, as each location is different & we are 26.5 kms due northwest of P1. However, IMO they should have got back to drilling by late thur, early fri.

So, that gives them, say 3-4 days of steady drilling (so use 20-60m/day as a very rough guide). IMO, they should have hit the Jurassic reservoir @ 4283m, if drilling had commenced, which is very much likely. I've explained this below.

Its quite likely that they have drilled thro' the majority of the volcanic section with the 8.5" bit. This has saved them a lot of 'rig' time. They've just pulled up short of drilling out of the base of the volcanics into the Jurassic reservoir.

The quicker ROP we saw earlier from 3527-4169m (642m in 5 days or 128.4m/day) was due to drilling thro' the Albian, Aptian, the Callovian sequence & the top of the volcanics.

The volcanics did have gas on B-ST1, so they should have got that at KT, since the wells are 4.3kms apart. Looking at their 2006 reports etc, on KT it is likely that they plan to go deeper, past the Jurassics into the Triassic. The Jurassic reservoir had 66m of 'net' pay sands (not gross) with a 12% porosity.

At B-ST1, this is how the stratigraphy was, without getting too technical,


2800m Top of Oligocene sequence (Tertiary)
3304m Paleocene (Tertiary)
3487m Albian (Cretaceous)
3729m Aptian (Cretaceous)
3776m Callovian (top of Mid Jurassics)
4270m Well kicked with 300 bbls of mudloss, controlled with heavy mud with sp grav of 2 (IMO, KT is updip so is safe)
4447m Base of the volcanics & unconformity
4532m Top of reservoir (mid-lwr Jurassic Plover sands, 66m net gas sands/12% poro)
4787m Total depth (triassic unconformity begins)

Note the volcanics refered to are actually altered basalt lava flows, tuff & pyroclastic material which r below the Cretaceous claystone seal. Its not a solid chunk, so u get hard & soft bands depending on the deposition. Hence the slow/fast ROP.

KT is located 4.3km west of Buffon & is updip. Which means, as per my rough calc's, the top of the Jurassic reservoir should b drilled over the w'end & should be hit roughly at 4283m or 4379m apprx, depending on KT's location. I've used rough calc's frm the seismic section & a per that the top of the reservoir runs updip unlike Buffon where it was at 4532m. This section, was posted earlier in the month here (do chk that post for the diagrams/log, as I dont want to use up more space).

Depending on how they go with the drilling (slow/fast), post TD, they will run wireline logs & likely flow test any section, thats a decision entirely upto Conoco. So fingers crossed. As for P&A etc, its std practice, since its a long way offshore & they cant leave a well-head exposed to elements of nature.

Look fwd to nxt week & beyond. The KT adventure continues.
Have tried to keep it simple, for all believers & non-believers :)

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Note, these are my thoughts from what I've gathered frm past updates frm their preso's. Not everyone has a handle on this, so spare the pie-chucking. One could well b off the mark (by a few metres or a wee bit many), but for now this is the best one collate & decipher frm their past quaterly presentations, with no clear info available from their weekly updates, this is how the pieces come together. So its just a rough guide, but geology could b highly unpredictable, as we saw at P-1, where they kept going & going & going & still didnt get to the Gas-water contact !!

Looking fwd to their future updates & if the tension is getting to u, do what the greats do, 'use a stop-loss' just to avoid any knee-jerk reaction :)

cheers