Since November 2021 the SP has dropped from $1.56 to $0.62 as at the end June 2022
This in despite of the company’s announcements in 2022 all of which have been good news. The following good news in 2022 has been;
Final Phase 2 data for GBM, Alliance Trial expanding, ODD approved by FDA, ISPCO & ASCO posters, Mat Dunn’s news of 2 compassionate uses of paxalisib in humans showing remarkable results, GBM Agile fully underway incl Europe now recruiting and 7 world-class trials underway at cancer research organisations on multiple continents, with only moderate cost to KZA.
So why is the SP down 60% this year. It seems totally illogical.
The obvious external factor is the overall downturn in the bio industry with all stocks down at least 60%. This is cyclic and has come about because of inflated asset prices in other areas such as housing, banking, mining, retail etc. The money has flowed away from bios, however this is about to change, due to inflation, higher interest rates, a likely recession and reduced economic activity.
Apart from this there are no significant internal factors weighing on the SP except from the small capital raise (around $3.5 m) from the ATM, as well as Platinum Capital which appears to no longer being a major shareholder.
So the question is where do we go from here ?
The answers are unknown to investors at this point. If we speculate to the upside we assume that;
pAX will get approval for GBM off the Agile trial in 2023.
At around the same time pAX will get DIPG approval off the PNOC trial, building on from Matt Dun's work.
The other major for KZA is the possible success for pAX in BCBM from the Alliance trial, and whilst this won't be finalised in 2023, there could be significant progress reporting which will increase KZA SP in 2023
The other significant potential for additional SP increase will be any positive data results from EVT-801 in 2023. The CEO believe this to be huge.
We also have possible SP increases from the other trials being carried out.
The other major factor to increase the SP is the coming bounce back in the overall bio sector, as this will become a bull market in 2023, as major investment flow into it, due to the economic downturn which will occur in 2023. Whilst other sectors will suffer such as retail, banking, housing etc, the healthcare sector will boom again.
As well there are "surprises" that we don't know about, which may happen, with the obvious being Licensing Deals or a major deal with a big bio.
So the obvious question is what do we do ?
Stay strong to all the research we have done, support the science as we are on the cusp of something really special in saving adult and kids lives, and support KZA management and advisory team which is world class.
Financial success for long term shareholders is now getting very close.
