Presume you are talking RMB300 NdPr? [ATTACH] Actually had the...

Presume you are talking RMB300 NdPr?


Actually had the same thought for some time. Unfortunately these charts were only available for a short time but the do capture a very interesting period, and totally reflect domestic China with virtually no ROW influence.

Shows the tail end of the domestic stimulation period, when they were building Wind Gen where the wind don't blow, etc, incl two short periods of price maintenance before prices effectively collapsed straight thru 300 down to 200.

Then the first effort at support early 2015, buying large volumes into stockpile at well over mkt prices, virtually dragging the price back over 300, but the mass of unconstrained supply and weak demand soon dragged prices back to the bottom.

About here I'm thinking they realised they needed to get serious and reconstruct the industry before any further efforts at price support.

Interesting thing is to do an overlay of exports, effectively the non magnetics, and note the pivot point of tariff removal May 2015, and you have exactly the opposite direction.

Drawing a rough line thru the RE SOE's earnings reports NdPr 300 probably represents the lower threshold of economic value for most, pricing above that level suggests some sense of stability but ultimately needs to be supported by domestic demand, ROW certainly doing its bit with 18% NdFeB demand growth YTD, on 16% 2016.

Will be dead easy to verify any substance above on a decent move thru 300, just watch the Big 6 SP, been dead as a dodo for months.

Interesting contrast is the much fabled "heavies" thru the same period, as represented by the Dy poster child:


Note the extraordinarily long period of price maintenance at semi precious metal status, before the whole complex crashed with Fanya Exchange in just a few weeks, Dy still limping along at or below that bottom 22 months later.

Suggest the comparison represents demand over hype, and the +RMB300 level may just trigger the confidence required for downstream to start building inventory again, of course further stimulating demand, rather than existing hand to mouth.