Ben, I don't think you are missing anything, IMO, except that you are looking at a small company with, until recently, little cash competing in a new industry predominently financed by oil companies, universities and airlines. The competition is fierce, but the Holy Grail, to competitively and sustainably produce a fuel to replace oil. I respect Paul's research and his other investments (unless my memory is letting me down) in other algae productions, but the reasons we won't hit $3 this year, and I will be very pleased to be proved wrong, include 1. We have one uncommercial plant at present from which we are seeking third party verification atm. We will have two uncommercial plants operating, possibly from next month (my guess anyway). 2. AEB can start expanding these plants towards making them profitable only from our uncommercial production line in Atlanta, Georgia. This won't change IMO, until the Lufthanza plant is completed or another plant is built. Just Lufthanza is the only one that we know about at present. 3. As far as I am aware, The Lufthanza agreement, which to my mind underwrites the future of AEB, generated not a single line in the press. This probably reflects the interest of the Australian public. None of the above is a poor reflection on management, who have done a magnificent job taking algae research from the drawing board to production. Having no idea what Paul may be referring to that will lift AEB to $3 before the end of the year (but I hope he is right), over the next six months, I expect to see (a) The production rate verified at the Manildra plant and its announcing its expansion, (b) who we will be partnering with to get the Lufthanza plant operational, (c) the opening of the Holcim Lanka plant, and its announced expansion (d) new deals done in USA and Brazil. Apart from that, AEB will lose money until the Lufthanza plant (or its equivalent) opens. By that time, it will be hundreds of millions (maybe billions) of $US in debt which should be read as a vote of confidence by the banks, but it will scare some. I think this will be THE stock of the next 10 years but I still expect the option holders to do their dough. (hope I'm wrong on the latter point)
AEB Price at posting:
30.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
