but they decided not to as the likelihood of a win made the...

but they decided not to as the likelihood of a win made the cost/benefit -ve.

Yeah, not an unusual decision for such by-elections.
It's the sort of non-Labor held seat that a Teal type candidate might have had a better chance of taking.
A candidate that appeals to some Liberal voters that arises from the community and receives campaign assistance and funding from Climate 200 if that still works now that Scomo is no longer PM.
On the other hand maybe the Teal thing will peter out at the next federal election.

As an aside Scomo hanging around for so long in Parliament is reportedly a by-product of him not being eligible for a defined benefit pension.
He needed the income to pay the mortgage and school fees while he looked for paid employment outside of government.