mmmm, yes.I hold STB simply based on nearology to RWD and STB...

mmmm, yes.

I hold STB simply based on nearology to RWD and STB phospahte project as well.

But was really trying to get to the bottom of some basic figures.

The other thread lead me to the may 2007 presentation.

page 21,

Initial production 200,000 tpa

OPEX 98/t, trasport exp 90/t , amortisation (capex payback?) 75/t,

Revenue current 625/t (us)???(russian)taken from YC post on other thread

puts profit margin at 625-90-98-75=359/t

Then 359*x200,000=72 million. (10% of MAK)

Then I would imagine there will be state taxes 10%, indigineos deal ???10% and fed tax

so 72 mill prof x .9 *.9 *.7 = 40 million dollars profit clear.

This is based on 200 ktpa initial.

Domestic AUs market is 400 kpa demand,
so would assume that bw all potash hopefulls, this figure would be serviced, so rwd maybe 300ktpa??? and could also export.

So, the real question, is what capacity bottlenecks will limit rwd production?

If we said conservatively, they were able to ramp up to cater for the entire aus market.

Then double that figure to 80 mill profit.

For a company with a MC of 52 mill, lets say a PE of 8

PE(8)xProfit(80)=640 million MC / current MC 52 mill=12 bagger.

So, a 12 bagger if it can service the entire Aus demand for potash, without other players takng market share off it, but then, it could export as well.

Hope that helps, and appreciate any corrections to the above figures, they are just roughies to put it into perspective.

cheers