I am bringing up an argument against your argument. You may think how big the debt is and what is owed for interest is unimportant. You may feel losing $66M in Q1 AND 2 is unimportant, I don’t. If you know of any way to figure out what the future might be other than looking as released numbers I would like to know it. As far as I can tell you are clueless how much prices have to go up to achieve true break even. I may be wrong if so show me what you think. I will gladly admit I am wrong.
Look at Amanda’s very carefully worded statement which is true.
“Free cash flow (revenue less operating costs and CAPEX) of A$0.9million”
Free cash went down, Q3 and Q4 summery has free cash as 10.4M and Q4 as 10.4 million which is no change!!!!. Lets go to cash flow report for June. page 4. Free cash March 16 $10.432M Free cash June 16 $10.402. Sure looks like it went down to me! By a very small amount $30 thousand. Just for record total cash went down from $44,511M March to $43,438 in June. Now how do either of these look cash flow positive to you ???? For the 4th time Amanda has change what she considers cash flow to keep the number positive.
In a discussion about how much prices had to go up a few days ago I mentioned that they would be out of free cash in June if they had pay interest in Q3 and Q4. To save time I used lower interest rates rather than look them up. ( Still haven't) You amazed me because you made a big deal about wrong numbers, the correct numbers actually hurt your case. They made the increase in REE prices larger. I thought that the number I had would never happen so it was not important if I used lower interest rates, more favorable to Lynas. Apparently you did not get this.
So why don’t you go to note (i) in june cash report and look at loans in US $. Then using either my interest rates ( which will improve picture) or yours tell us how much cash they would have now if they paid interest.
Do you really think not paying debt, not paying vendors, getting pre payments from customers, Is a SUSTAINABLE way to keep free cash positive????
For example from semiannual report Accounts payable. AU$ 45,042M Accounts receivable AU $ 1,844M That is just over $43M more owed. Now before you tell me that some of the parables should probably not be included, I will agree that it shouldn’t, even if I subtract it out it still whips out free cash on hand at that time. Why don’t you tell me what it is and how much.
Speaking of future. Any ideas why we have not seen annual report yet? Next Friday Sept. 30 it will be the latest it ever came out. I have 3 or 4 possibilities none of them good. What do you think? In general bad news comes out late. Last time this happened they announced a stock sale. My GUESS is at that time the auditors were going to say the company was not viable if they did not show how they were going to raise cash. My guess is something like that is going on now, granted I do not know. What’s your guess?
LYC Price at posting:
6.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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