Thank you muchly HTB and chihawk.Apologies to ST...

Thank you muchly HTB and chihawk.

Apologies to ST traders/Chartists as this is boring LT stuff...please continue with the astrology theories..(kidding)(sorta.:)

Whats this post got to do with Fridays sell of and todays recovery.

It highlights ..This is a race..nothing new..a reminder what impact delays have..ARU hit 17%..we cop 11%..the other REE,s take a ticket,your time will come.

It also highlights that we have to continue doing our own mud maps as there are very few if any analyst that we can say we can respect..as we know..set a valuation..ramp it up..sell it off.



HTB:: makes as much sense as any analyst can come up with.

So as we see it in OZ.

ALK should finish constructions by end 2014..so production some time in 2015.

ARU...2017.

Thank you chihawk..So Moly..start up 2013.

These are all maybe,s and providing all goes smoothly..yeah right.

So really after China,LYC,Moly...there is a 2 year gap...and then another 2 year gap.

Goldman Sachs..(Southwood) has stated that demand would start dropping by 2013.(LYC 22K T..Moly (maybe) 20K..China decreasing..thats got to be around 30-40% of world demand at best.
Is he not aware of the 2 lots of 2 year gaps..and ALK and ARU are hardly going to set the world on fire with Volume.




The 4th cab off the rank,nomatter who wont start before 2017.

So the above mud map shows that the Lil ozzie battler has the sweet spot for a min 5-7 yrs.

The challenge has been put to LYC.
If they can get the waste management plan finished by early sept..and the pre operation granted by end of sept,then even if construction is only 90% complete..we will take off.
The concentration plant will have to start getting the transport operational..1000klm to Freo..that will be an important ann. ..first shipload of ore on the way.

So whatever will happen..it will happen well before Xmas.HoHOHO.