Great to see some good responses to abject nonsense, there is enough NdPr within 500klm of Melbourne, Victoria to satisfy global demand for 50yrs or more, and it is not some wannabe fantasy but has some heavy hitters from the mineral sands space and also significant player downstream RE personally invested.
ILU is sitting on mountains of the stuff, China in fact recently putting out feelers for monazite waste feed, Medallion has access to massive stockpiles in the US that once beneficiated has a remarkably similar suite profile to Mt Weld. Speaking of which has sufficient resource currently thru 2035 at current rates and potentially higher rates or longer horizon or both post mid year update.
Farcical part of that Toyota release is they are currently importing REO mined from beach sands in India, from memory it was ~3000t 2015. They KNOW there is no potential shortage Nd, there is an abundance, in & out of China, it is simply a matter of efficient delivery to mkt.
Nor is Ce to NdFeB anything new, the Chinese have been reporting success for several years, as have US @ ORNL.
Grain Boundary Diffusion has been around since 2006, and played a significant role in the elimination of Dy/Tb particularly since 2012, its application to displace 20/30% just HAS to be a major positive NdFeB as it will lower costs and expand the mkt further down into the ferrite segment which holds ~80% total mag mkt ATM. The Chinese are working on it, so is the US, and Toyota have published some success. Great.
Very good article May 2017 that outlines the current state of play, and should be read in conjunction Lynas AGM presentation & AL's address:
http://www.powertransmissionworld.c...ous-motors-and-synchronous-reluctance-motors/
"electric motors are responsible for about 45% of the total consumption of electric energy"
"two thirds" in industry
"only Europe, the use of forefront drive technologies instead of obsolete ones can determine a reduction of yearly consumptions by 135 TWh and CO
2 emissions by 69 million tons"
"the European Union, as well as in the United States, in China and in other Countries, are in force
regulatory plans providing for the mandatory compliance with gradually increasing efficiency requisites for new installations"
"With the technology most diffused among motors today, the asynchronous motor one (or Induction Motor, IM), the
improvements demanded in the future will not be possible, at least at reasonable costs, and for all power ranges."
"importance of decreasing energy consumptions, are leading to the adoption of motors scarcely spread until now, such as Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors, PMSM, and Synchronous Reluctance Motors, SynRM"
"This class of motors, in fact, features intrinsic characteristics that allow a notable improvement of the efficiency and of the power density, in particular very low rotor losses."
Now here are the MAJOR constraints to NdFeB demand growth, refer Lynas presentation for both awareness & strategy:
"production of permanent magnets, particular materials are used, to achieve high induction values and to prevent the risk of demagnetization (generally linked with high temperatures or high magnetic field). The most used materials are neodymium -iron-boron, samarium -cobalt and aluminium-nickel-cobalt. Especially in the SM‑PMSM case, the quantity of active magnetic material is high, with a strong weight of raw materials in the total cost."
Note, the "high" material cost is linked to "risk of demagnetization" yet we've seen the Dy/Tb content eliminated in roughly half the grades and considerably reduced in the balance, and of course the samarium-cobalt case is obvious.
"This condition is worsened by the
strong variability of the price of the so-called “rare earths” [7], elements used in small quantities but very important for the magnet quality."
Absolute key factor, and one Lynas is employing to huge advantage. Promotion here that "price" is a negative factor demand growth is abject nonsense, NdPr is reported to have an economic threshold of $100kg, recently confirmed to me by senior mgt working BOTH sides of the coalface. It is the variability of the price that scares the MSC & OEM's who do their cost planning over model life or several years production. Global PO Bose told me last June she was terrified what rising NdPr prices were doing to their forwards, despite drawing from 3 mag makers in China and roughly 6 months demand warehoused in the US.
Everyone tends to lose sight of just how immature this emerging industry is, and no better illustration than the stupid Chinese speculation pushing prices H2 2017. Lynas is extremely conscious of providing LT price security with collars & cuffs to mkt, eliminating fear of the unknown, rampant speculation, and that is why Lynas is "on allocation" NdPr while China producing 70% capacity.
"Apart from cost and availability problems, these materials arouse also important environmental, political and ethical issues regarding their extraction, trade and disposal."
Again, Lynas very focused on its enviro message, and can back it up factually (SMSL may have done us a favour there). China knows it needs to clean up, and is acting on it, but probably take a while to get the message out.
"
Applications" well worth the read, illustrates a broad range of demand segments and some of the rationalisation.
Every reason to be confident strong demand growth NdFeB in a multiplicity of demand segments, particularly given global GDP growth ATM, and Lynas has a business plan to take full advantage.
(20min delay)