Large BUY - ex insider/ ex CSO / new consultant - Dr Tillett, page-100

See other post in Industry news thread.

You are correct on some of the detail but need to factor in on a revenue producing Aquisition, the commercial runway of the drugs of the portfolio your purchasing, market left to capture etc. Have a look at the Tredolvy example acquired by Gilead.

Just because Keytruda pulls in $25b a year at peak doesn't mean you would go and pay through the nose 3 years before it comes of patent.

I am not saying people are going to get $40-$80b in a transaction, prior to revenue. in my view, to get to that stage RAC would need to be FDA approved and starting to produce revenue in low single digits. Not something that we will ever get to IMO

But to accurately value something using a model, you need a base and a top end and then add your inputs to discount for risk/time etc.

I think the point is the Triangle report supports "revenue" sometime in 2030's of $12B USD at the absolute upper end, at a 50% adjusted discount, that would line up with the lofty figures above. and its our job to work out the most likely scenario, stage, or time for Aquisition and apply the discount to it.

Assuming positive P2 results and an upper valuation of $40B.
Is an Aquisition on 90% discount realistic? $4B
is an acquisition on 80% discount realistic? $8B