Read the triangle report and pay attention to the feedback from oncologists, the assumptions about penetration, the US as a share of the global market, and the statements from oncologists about how much extra they'd prescribe Doxorubicin (and therefore Bisantrene).
The report clearly gets to $5Bn to $8Bn per annum in revenue in patients who are already being prescribed with the underlying drug*, the insurance companies support the pricing and the whole things is based on reductions and conservative assumptions that cut the US prescriptions in half and ignore the rest of the world. Move past these and we're talking $10Bn to $16Bn annual revenue plus plus. The report assumes the market will shrink while the oncologists say it will expand if such a drug exists to protect against the cardio damage and a handle the anti-cancer effect of the standard of care.
The valuations and upside are so big, that talking about them makes people disbelieve that they're possible. Therefore, maybe we just work with $5-$10 per share on the AML to get people interested and then we can move onto the life-changing numbers later.
*We don't need to change the world, we just need to make it safer (cardio protect) and more effective (anti-cancer synergy) for the 10's of millions of doses of doxorubicin that are already administered every year! CPACS - cardio protect anti cancer synergy.
You helped me with pricing at AGN, what can I do for you here?
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