How much now and how much $$$ question was interesting
Summary Table of US Navy Forecast spending
Category Fiscal Year(s) Amount (billion USD) Scope Ship Maintenance (base) FY 2026 16.2 Depot-level repairs, hull-section replacements Ship Maintenance + Modernization FY 2026 ~18–20 Includes reconciliation funding Shipbuilding (new hull construction) FY 2024–2053 (avg) 34–36 New ships, major hull sections, structural frames
Question what amount in $ could AML 3d extract from this summary?
Adoption-Rate Scenarios
Budget Category Total ($B) Low (0.1%) Medium (1%) High (5%) Ship Maintenance (base) 16.2 0.016 B 0.162 B 0.81 B Maintenance + Modernization 19 (midpoint) 0.019 B 0.19 B 0.95 B New-Hull Construction (annual) 35 0.035 B 0.35 B 1.75 B
Last question- What would this do to AML 3d market cap ( NB we are a MICRO CAP stock)Revenue Capture Scenarios
We apply AML3D’s current Price/Sales multiple (8.16×) to each annual revenue scenario from US Navy adoption.
ScenarioRevenue Capture (USD)Approx. AUD¹Implied Market Cap (AUD)Conservative$ 70 million$ 105 million$ 857 millionRealistic$ 702 million$ 1.05 billion$ 8.57 billionAggressive$ 3.51 billion$ 5.27 billion$ 43.0 billion¹Assumes USD 1 = AUD 1.5
Relative Upside
Conservative scenario implies a ~6× uplift over today’s AUD 134 million.
Realistic adoption could drive a ~64× expansion.
Aggressive take-rate would multiply current market cap by ~320×.
Impact on AML3D’s Market Capitalization
Current Metrics
Below are AML3D’s key valuation metrics as of mid-2025:
Current market cap: AUD 134.44 millionPrice/Sales (ttm): 8.16×Revenue Capture Scenarios
We apply AML3D’s current Price/Sales multiple (8.16×) to each annual revenue scenario from US Navy adoption.
ScenarioRevenue Capture (USD)Approx. AUD¹Implied Market Cap (AUD)Conservative$ 70 million$ 105 million$ 857 millionRealistic$ 702 million$ 1.05 billion$ 8.57 billionAggressive$ 3.51 billion$ 5.27 billion$ 43.0 billion¹Assumes USD 1 = AUD 1.5
Relative Upside
Conservative scenario implies a ~6× uplift over today’s AUD 134 million.Realistic adoption could drive a ~64× expansion.Aggressive take-rate would multiply current market cap by ~320×.Assumptions & Risks
We’ve held P/S constant at 8.16×; in reality a big revenue jump could compress or expand that multiple.Currency conversion may vary—using 1 USD = 1.5 AUD for illustration.Time horizon matters: near-term pilot revenues won’t immediately translate into full-scale adoption.
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27.0¢ |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $146.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
27.0¢ | 28.5¢ | 26.8¢ | $934.8K | 3.382M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 363985 | 26.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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27.5¢ | 8500 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 363985 | 0.265 |
12 | 222172 | 0.260 |
9 | 56885 | 0.255 |
35 | 418838 | 0.250 |
12 | 492194 | 0.245 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.275 | 8500 | 1 |
0.280 | 112990 | 2 |
0.285 | 224254 | 7 |
0.290 | 145758 | 6 |
0.295 | 56000 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 29/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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