IMO this is the start of widespread spontaneous emergence of tamiflu resistance - as predicted by Henry Niman using his controversial recommbination model for predicting flu evolution. So far he correctly 1.predicted Tamiflu resistance in seasonal flu two yrs ago 2.The mutation for increased virulence which is currently errupting around the world and 3. also the current expansion of tamiflu resistance to swine flu.
I have posted many times my opinion on this evolution and what it will mean to the BTA share price.
I think today we have just seen the knock out punch for tamiflu and permiravir due to there weak resistance profile - as far as govt stockpiling is concerned anyway
We are basically left with relenza - the only antiviral that can currently be relied upon
we could concievably see a fast track of lani in these circumstances as a back up
Also further increases in gsk/china production
What atime to be negotiating a license deal for lani!
I'm making the call today that we will begin to see a vast revaluation in the BTA share price by at least X 10 starting next week.( i'm not calling it a super spike - cause it won't be comming back down ) see below - more to come as it happens
Large Tamiflu Resistant Cluster in Wales UK Recombinomics Commentary 17:50 November 20, 2009
The cases have been reported among nine patients in a hospital in Wales. Five cases are "known to be resistent to oseltamivir", the generic name for Tamiflu, the HPA said today in an e-mailed statement.
The above comments describe a large cluster of Tamiflu resistant swine H1N1 in a hospital in Wales. Earlier reports had described resistance in 2 immuno-compromised patients, but the updated report of 5-9 patients leaves little doubt that the virus is transmitting human to human. All prior examples of resistance in swine H1N1 involved H274Y, which is almost certainly the case for this outbreak. Previously there have been multiple reports of clusters of two, including recent outbreak in Edinburgh, and this large outbreak raises concerns that H1N1 with H274Y will become far more common.
Although prior cases were said to be due to "spontaneous mutation, by Roche and agency reports, there was little data to support that conclusion. All resistance involved the same change, H274Y, on multiple H1N1 backgrounds and appearance was too soon to support a spontaneous origin. Instead the rapid appearance supported circulation of H274Y as a minor population which was below detection limit in the absence of Tamiflu selection, but rapidly appeared after treatment. The appearance of 5-9 cases at the same facility indicates the detected H274Y was not due to independent mutations and reinforces concerns that H274Y is widespread and efficiently transmitting..
Re: Tamiflu-resistant swine flu cluster reported in NC
Posted 29m ago By Steve Sternberg, USA TODAY Epidemic experts have launched an investigation of four Tamiflu-resistant swine flu cases at Duke University Medical Center to see whether the resistant virus has begun spreading person-to-person at the Durham, N.C. hospital and beyond.
If so, the cluster appears to be the first instance in which Tamiflu-resistant virus has been transmitted from person to person.
"The four patients involved in this situation had the same resistance pattern," says Daniel Sexton, the hospital epidemiologist leading the investigation, adding that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are now testing virus samples to see whether they're identical.
"The resistance pattern suggests that might be the case," he says. All of the patients were located in a ward for people with cancer or severe blood disorders. All were severely ill and were highly susceptible to infections, Sexton says.
The patients became ill with flu in October. When they didn't respond to Tamiflu, the hospital sent specimens of their virus to see whether the virus might be resistant to antiviral treatment. The results didn't come back until two weeks ago, prompting Duke to launch an investigation.
Sexton says three epidemiologists from the CDC as well as experts from the state health department are now at Duke assisting in the investigation. The investigation has now been extended outside Duke to determine whether Tamiflu-resistant flu is circulating elsewhere in North Carolina. CDC spokesman Dave Daige says the agency did confirm the cases and has sent three Epidemic Intelligence Service "disease detectives" to assist in the investigation.
Three of the four Duke patients have died; the fourth is extremely ill but is being treated with another antiviral called Relenza and appears to be recovering. In addition, the Reuters wire service has reported a cluster of nine Tamiflu resistant cases of swine flu, also called H1N1 flu, in Wales.
Ann Schuchat, director of CDC's national center for immunization and respiratory diseases, said Friday that she had not heard of the Wales cluster, but acknowledged that CDC has been tracking other instances of Tamiflu resistance. "We've seen a dozen or so at this point, but the cluster issue will be an important thing to track and understand because that would be a sign of transmission," she says.
If resistant strains start spreading in the midst of a pandemic, Sexton says, they could represent a global threat and potentially increase the number of flu deaths.
BTA Price at posting:
$2.60 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
