ARL 0.00% 43.5¢ ardea resources limited

Largest cobalt resource with lowest valuation, page-1107

  1. 4,582 Posts.
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    There will be a few different mindsights at present, this will be come a very psychological stock, similar to SIR from the 5c to $5 run. Regarding ARL, I'd love to see Matt and Co. take it all the way through to production, just like AVB but the commodity dynamics are very different. My gut is telling me that as at some stage there will be a too good to refuse moment, and possibly why the options structure was done in such a manner. There could well be a suited Chinese buyer already yet from experience Chinese conglomerates like large completed JORCs, they do not really want to get too involved with the on ground/political/logistical/day-to-day areas. They buy for the future and thus an extra $200/$300m or so is somewhat always justified. There is also the CAPEX, this will be large for ARL and will be an overhang for potential medium term investors for a while - until the resource can be further established and a BFS is applied the market cap will likely remain under $150m, that being said is still 5x current price. There will also be slight overhang from retail option holders, many will cash out, this is expected. But do not keep your eye on who is selling them but who is buying them. I anticipate many more institutions coming onto the register over the next 3 to 6 months. There are of course many, many more things to consider, these are just a few.

    Sorry for rambling, NL.
 
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