Kojak, agree debt repayment in Sep could be problematic....

Kojak, agree debt repayment in Sep could be problematic.

Production Guidance as per the June qtly for FY19 is 65-75koz, implying 16.25-18.75koz per quarter on average (may be front loaded, not clear from qtly disclosure).

FY19 guidance 'quarteralised' is lower than the last two quarters' actuals, when TRY produced 41.2koz - 20.6koz per quarter - and sold 43.7koz, 2.5koz more than it produced.

IMHO risk is that Sep q, if it turns out to be within guidance, will show weaker production (with less surplus gold inventory to sell). Ergo less cash generation to cover the quarterly A$20m+ AISC, let alone repay debt / creditors.

If this turns out to be the case, Investec may need to compromise some more and trade creditors remain patient.