Called this stock(MTN) at 20 cents-- and got blasted .... U guessed it-- for being a ramper... in another Forum; in another Galaxy..... far.... far away...
And let me tell ya, the ramping allegation --re MTN-- was Sustained,snide, and vicious, and went for over 9 months--and the person/s calling me a ramper did not relent... !!!! wow--
And you know what...???
With the...." Mate your just a ramper-- accusers" -- whether it be with MTN or any other share--and there have now been many several such similar situatons-- -- do you think these cowards ....ever .....ever....ever---come back to demonstrate some humilty and sincerely apologize.... ????!!
Answer: No way... Never. !!!
Had exactly the same situatoin recently with Austin Enginneering (ANG) which I researched extensively and called this gem at at 38 cents. And still HOLD...
Any apology from the "your just a ramper accuser"...?
Not a whisper...
Keen to lay the boot in, .....never able ever .... to apologize....why..coz thier cowards.
Anyways; Have kept all MTN stock--although was.... in and out --and back IN- once-- with approx 30% of holdings .... about 10 mths ago--
Analytically-- The situatoin now re MTN To my way of assessing is this:
" The Question " .... is simply this with Marathon -- MTN.
Compare the Market Cap of Summit (SMM) -- Its tenemnts are situated in Qld --one of the Most Unfavourable --yes Anti Uranium Mining politically totally unfavourable environments ---for U Mining in the near future-- --- in Australia--with the Beatty Labor govt --Just now --- re elected for a further full 3 years-- and the Libs totally decimated & impotent in QLD-- this re election re occurred only a few months ago-- !!
Now I amnot saying that the Labor party will nver change the policy. It is just that this is not the case now. And tha at least ahs to be recognized as being one real potential negative risk factor.
Especially when the stock in question is pushing 700 millions market capitalization...!!
Interestingly; the SMM promoters like to "gloss over"-- this inconvenient fact--but it is unfortunately true-- it is a fact-- and.... cannot be just totally ....swept under the carpet .... it is a real consideration--not the only consideration--but a significant one..... nonetheless.
And then there is: good ol , Deep Yellow (DYL) no JORC --DYL-- and lots of hot air (but granted_ they (DYL) do ahve excellent " stock promoters"-- imo....
Then compare the above two co's with the Market Cap of Marathon (MTN).
(3) MTN ... logically is massively highly undervalued.
or (1)--SMM-- and (2)-DYL-- are both not over valued (unlikely--but let us stay with the deductive analysis) -- and even more so then logically-- MTN is very grossly under valued....!!
....Now let us take a "third" alternative approach.....or permutation...
SMM is arguably say-- 30 -50% % over valued.....but is so; due to excellent " stock promoters".
Where does that leave MTN...?
Still very massively under valued.
Folk are valuing up SMM to a Market Cap now of approx $700 Millions of Dollars !!!!
Yes, SMM is at $700 Millions Market Cap as we speak...wow!!
SMM is therefore-- currently so Higholy valued-- that this assumes ----on a PE of approximately BHP's PE-- ie: a PE of about 14 -- that SMM has -- NOW and PRESENTLY-- a totally reliable & dependable forward net Dolar earnings going forward of: $55 Millions Net. per annum--- for perpetuity--- discounted for risk-- Not ebita--but net (NPAT) !!
-hmmmm--.... Now that ...... imo; is a Big Call...no make that HUGE... Call--with Zero Margin for Safety !!!
To me; given the Qld Government Policy--and the other Risks associated with any new possible Mine-- before even an ounce of Mine Development... one starts to think, as ---regards Summitt (SMM) ---- of that lovely little childen's story .... the one about the Emperor..... with No Clothes.... Who will be the first ...to say... errrr,.... he's " rather... naked"...!!
btw--have SMM even done a Bankeable Feasibility Study and obtained Bank approved Finance for a Mine yet..?
-When does the main game Mining for Summitt (SMM) officially start, and when is the firwst Dollar of uranium Mining taking palce...???
In, other words, what -- NOW-- does the investor get for their share of the $700 Hundred Millions of Dollars that Summitt is currently being sold at. ..??
Answer: "A nice hope and a Dream ..... totally dependent on a arbitrary political decision .... with No guarantees ... NIL-- and no forseeable cash flow --not a cent-- of future cash flows-- whatsoever...
Even if they got that approval--say in 2-3 years time-- the first cent of cash flows are are feasibly 7-10 years away-- and a lot can happen(both Good and Bad btw)-- in commodity markets in that time.
Why do I bring ....all of this.... up--..??
Because in Mining Compay or any Business whatsoever actually--ie: "valuing any company"-- it gets down to forseeable future discounted for risk-- future likely predictable cash flows.
It is that SIMPLE.
Back to Marathon. (MTN).
MTN is currently a Market Cap of approx: 132 Millions and is.... in the most Uranium Mining friendly.... State of Australia- namely SA-- (excepting territories). ...
--So what is A reasonable risk to bear-- on a market cap basis....for a U Mining Company in South Astralia with a defined JORC resource...?
I would have thought 200 --230 millions-maybe--280 Millions tops-- - being an additional 75% --110% additional--tops-- approx-- giving MTN a share price.... of about .....# $2.40 --$2.75...??.
Beyond that-- and do not forget --- I really do support and love the MTN story immensely-- personally-- on a rational basis-- the "risk verus reward"-- equation does then start to rationally.... imo, "kick in" .....and the thing depends on a lot of "hope" and "hype"-- versus rationality-- and the relationship to .....certainty of forward earnings.....being discounted due to.... and for-- Australian State Labor Govt political risk-- and therefore the unknown distant future "not knowns as to ---When mining can ever start question" -- due to politically induced delays-- does hang over the whole situation.
And this-- "not knowns as to ---When mining can ever start question" -- is not to be wished away.
It is not the be all and end all. I accept that.
But it is also ....not ....just nothing.
I do not accept that it is a "just nothing issue". --coz that is simply not true...
And if Labor's Kevin Rudd wins in Canberra--at the next Fed Election in next Year 2008 presumably -- then that further puts U Mining in Australai-- at risk -- and being made more unlikley to proceed-- up another 3 notches again-- and that again---- is at least ----arguable and conceivable.
In fact only today--the Treasurer of Western Autralia - Eric Ripper --re- iterated & repeated-- that there is no chance-- No Chance-- that his WA Labor government will ever-- be happy to approve of or sanction Uranium Mining in Western Australia....
Now maybe he was just posturing... ???
But it is at least a degree of uncertainty and therefore risk..... to future cash flow from Scarce Capital invested and thus employed....to achieve a Return....
Reember, Ripper did go very Public--and continues to do so....
But yes;on the other hand; relative to the upside.... and its peers--MTN still has an arguable case ....for further strong share price growth.... with some form--??-- of Margin of Safety-- (I use the phrase .....Margin of Safety-- with any Australian U stock...very very loosly and frankly and honestly-- too loosley of course ....!!)--
The real issue -- for me-- is where does "Investment Grade" cross the rubicon-- and move over to : jsut the words-- Gamble and mindless mob frenzy bubble and Speculation--...??..
The Massively high market caps of DYL and SMM ....for mine.... are in the latter Speculation Grade"--and Gambling-- category....driven by "pass the parcel speculative tendencies-- of a Pied Piper led crowd ....that never stops ....to look at a few basic 101-- valuation facts.
I like to invest.
I do not ever like to -- Gamble.
MTN is still more; imo, arguably in the former....category of investment--at this stage-- but it too is ..... not forever.
MTN too --imo---"has a marekt cap valuation point"--- where that 'line' ....will be crossed ....between mere Gamble and actual Investment calibrated for Risk-- depending on State and future Federal maybe--??-- Labor Govt Mining Policies.
The strengths of MTN; imo, are:
(1) Defined JORC assesssed Resource.
(2) Excellent Technical proven ethical Mgt.
(3) South Australia is "best" state in Australia-- according to most so called experts-- for a "fourth" Uranium mine.
(4) Market Cap is a fraction of its peers.
That is my 2 cents worth.
Kindest Regards,
Robbo .
LCK Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)