You do not need .....to ever apologize to me Redder, coz you debated the share being discussed-- and dialogued about it smerits or otehrwise-- and did not attack me personally-- or impugn my integrity.
So your comments were welcomed, perfectly fine and perfectly legiitmate.
And I take this opp Redder; to register my appreciation accordingly.
Here is all that I am asking readers to consider to ... calmly.... and rationally-- concentrate.... their minds now on....with Summitt. (SMM) ...(or with any Share for that matter !!)--
.... Your actual Real Risk ....versus... the Real You are now being asked to Pay with Your Money -- ie: The Price ... (in this case for SMM-- the Investor is asked to now Pay..... and your ..... likely future predictable earnings Return... ..for paying that amount of money (price).... ....
....That is all.... That pure & simple.
-Remember this-- SMM is only-- in a situation-- where the expected return in earnings--still only a ....
..."Maybe" and "Hopefully" category of earnings to you the investor as a Dollar return--
It is not in thecategory-- of a Highly Probable ....on any mathematical understanding of the phrase: "Highly Probable".... category.
And Summitt (in the above context)-- on the stock market is asking a quoted effective price for their SMM shares now; for you the inestor to pay up a share in something being quoted at --- $705, 000, 000....wow !!
That is a hugely High price...imo, given the available status and facts.
Is that figure--$705, 000, 000 really ... at this stage-- truly reasonable, safe and appropriate...?
-There is still --imo-- what jurors may call--a strong case for--"Reasonable doubt".
There is NO high level of predictablility; for SMM currently, ...by .....ANY .... stretch .....or use..... of that term.
There is ....No.... reasonable certainty; for a return for SMM shareholders.
None. None at all.
-There are still real obstacles and real doubts ....and a significant percentage chance....of doubts based on emperical evidence-- on a number of real fronts....
And any rational assessment of all of the real time facts-- that a real profit producing Mine is going to happen...???
At best, we have a status NOW-- of a "maybe" situation-- happening "maybe" in many, many long years away-- and no guarantee it will ever open at all...
.That is simply; an uncomfortable but ....needing to be stated ....Cold hard Fact....
With SMM --at $795 m market cap now-- do remember--- that .....
-There is no earnings --zero-- $$$--earnings this year (2007) ; to be seen THIS year, or next year(2008) , and probably the next year-(2009) - and even 2010 is heavilly in doubt....
ie: NO earnings $$$--returns-- from this Investment-- to come from Summit ....in any circumstances whatsoever....in that time period.
And yet the market is NOW--asking YOU now-- for $705 millions to invest in this company. ..... hmmmmm.....
At the very least..... do consider and ..... Think .....about that.
A couple of points. --
Firstly; let me state from the outset-- that my understanding... is that SMM is a fabulous ...."potential" ....Uranium Mine.
Repeat a fabulous first rate .... "potential" ..... Uranium mine.
-"P" here may stand for two similar words...... ."possible" and "potential"...
And that "potential" mine is still some years ....at the very very least..... down the track.
I think that is at least broadly "common ground" .....and hard to reasonably dispute....
In my last post..... I was simply ruminating ....on the "discounted for risk" calibration and calculation-- in that "Potential" and the risks asociated with that potential-- Given the higher the Market Capitalization on ANY stock--Mining, Industrial, Technical, --any stock-- the Higher the Market Capitalization -- then the higher is the potential Risk -- if the certainity of future earnings--- is assessessed alongside the decision to allocate scarce capital--(Investors further Money)-- to that Actual Investment.
With Summitt, (SMM)now --imo---At a giddly High Market capitalization-- NOW of $705, 000,000-- investors/speculators are now saying effectively-- that the Business enterprise..... which is Summitt Ltd --(SMM) --will confidently & predictably now return to them--???? --as a business return.... and return on YOUR Money and capital employed-- a true NET profit of:
---wait for it-- $50, 000, 000-- or probably a Earnings Before Interest and Tax of .... approx $75, 000, 000 for the next 15 years....
Wow--!! That is a "Big call" make that a HUGE call-- --at this stage !!
...Wow... That is a Huge call.
That is a totally massive.... "leap" of confidence-- for the sort of Price that Summitt is asking-- imo.... at this point in time... ie:... now...
-- Now that price may be a more jsutified case.... At a future point of time--when there are more facts and certaintly and data.... when guaranteed mining is so much more guaranteed and nearer....
AND --repeat and--a Bankeable Feasibility study is formally completed--indicating a neutral third party assessment of likely Financial dollar returns -- given the cost of infrasturcture-- and for how long those returns will likely to be-- from a future actual mine....
The point I am NOW only making is simply this.
It is called simply-- a correct asessment of:Value versus Risk.
or... to elaborate on Value versus Risk....
.... The actual Real Risk ....versus... the Price.... You the Investor is asked to Pay.....now; and her/his.....(read: "Your" ...real--??-- likely future predictable Return... for paying that ACTUAL amount of money....which is at risk until you get back your return.
That simple.
How 95% + DEPENDABLE..... and PREDICATABLE.... is it ....that Summitt Ltd (SMM) , ....will become a Mine.... say in the next 2-3 years-- ???
And give you the Investor; at least a Clear Net Return... to you the SMM Shareholder of $50, 000, 000 per annum--....at this stage-- ???..
(2) And has the adjusted risk factors all appropriately been taken into account ....given that at this stage.... their are "some--??"-- political obstacles in the way-- and that their is.... NO.... actual Mine this year (2007) , unlikely the following year--(2008) and probably even the following--(2009) ---would a Producing Mine exporting Uranium be due when--let us say 2010-2011 at the very earliest...? -- and how guaranteed is even that. ..??
(3) Are their any Other future risks ....that "might" ...impede that...?
(4) Have those risks---
(a) prudently,
(b) judiciously
(c) rationally,
(d) conservatively and
(e) safely ....
been now factored into...??-- the Current Market Capitalization and Share Price-- of Summitt Ltd (SMM)......to NOW justify the basis of its current.... Market Capitalization--??
Remember the central point in investing...
.... YOur actual Real Risk ....versus... the Real Price ...You pay for your Investment-- (in this case for SMM-- the Investor is asked to now Pay..... and her/his..... likely future predictable Return... for paying that very High amount of money (price)....
Namely that SMM --- will predictably--- and certainly... Return to SMM Shareholders a Return on Capital..... of $50, 000, 000 per annum for 15 uninterrupted years...???
--Maybe it has...??--
(5) But for me..... the Risk now.... in the Summitt (SMM) story--as a calculation ....of Risk versus Reward.... because of the Share Price... that Summitt is ....Now being --imo-- so highly quoted at--(not becuase of the intrinsic value.... or otherwise.... of the Summitt Uranium quality... or otherwise....)-- versus the potential future justification in share price increase is now --imo---FAR, far, stretching the Rational limits...
Especialy also; given the actual stage Summitt is only now at-- and the other political and infrastructure barriers that confront not just Summitt but any other POTENTIAL-- note the word ...."potential" --....not now or very very soon-- up & Running and Proven-- ....future profitable... income earning ....mines....
Just keep asking --HONESTLY and slowly and calmly-- the question yourselves folks...
And especialy this question: ....
....Your actual Real Risk ....versus... the Real Price ... (in this case for SMM-- the Investor -- YOU --are now being asked to now Pay.....with your Money-- and your ..... likely future predictable Return...???
You are now being asked to pay remember-- with YOUR money-- that very High amount of money (price).... for a "maybe" return...
(5) And where is NOW-- ???-- the Bankeable feasibility study to justify that Summitt Ltd will return ....a clear ....Net of tax and interest and Huge Mining Infrastructure and Running Costs- to give a bottom line of $50, 000, 000 Cold Profits-- per annum for 15 years straight. ..??
(7) Is the "entire" -- yes ENTIRE-- Summitt Uranium Resource--- at the highest Measured JORC Grade -- now and currently-- or are they only progressing on that front--...?? ?? --for a current whoppingly high asking price of:
$700 mill. ++ Geeee.... One would hope so...
(8) Has a cost of future mining Infrastructure and Development of the Mine being done yet, and has this been audited..?
(9) At these current Market Cap levels-- $700m. --- an investor is paying when she buys a share of Summitt limited a share in company being "valued" at namely--$700, 000, 000 -- say that figure slowly-- seven hundred millions of dollars for what right now...???
For a "hope" and.... a maybe" or ....something more certain than that....???
Is it true or untrue ---???_- that SMM is not producing a zac today, tomorrow, or anytime this year (2007), or next year (2008) or probably the next (2010)-- -- and yet is is actually being priced NOW-- at a whopping ---$700, 000, 000....???
-- (10)-- Is that Price Justified --NOW--...???
Is that price REALLy justified and Safe, and currently now brilliant value--to you the rational investor...??
And what does that PRICE imply-??
Possible Answer -It implies ....a return of at least $50, 000, 000 NET Profit to shareholders guaranteed...
Ask yourselves again:
With SMM ...."at these prices" (705M dolars) ...waht is ... -- ....Your actual Real Risk ....versus... the Real Price ... (in this case for SMM-- the Investor -- YOU --are asked to now Pay..... and her/his..... likely future predictable Return... that You are now being asked to pay with YOUR money-- that very High amount of money (price).... for a "maybe" return...
-How "guaranteed"--
is that $50, 000, 000-- Return per year to the SMM shareholder-- for the next 15 years...?
Or should it .....at the very least.... give you-- the share holder -- at least-- some PAUSE.... for some deep thought and reflection....??
Just think-- for yourselves-- with a calculator-- steadily, closely, calmly and rationally and objectively-- and think of what the $700, 000, 000 Price now being asked for SMM-- now does imply for any current Summitt investor....????--
ie: imo-- $700 Mill. is a lot of Money !! --
...especially to being asked to pay for something so... far.... far, away from producing a single ... at this stage-- what can only be described as a : "Maybe & Hopefully.. but still uncertain both in terms or whether, how and when ... future single Dollar...??...
Frankly I Get back again and again to this:
....Your actual Real Risk ....versus... the Real Price ... (in this case for SMM-- the Investor -- YOU --are asked to now Pay..... and her/his..... likely future predictable Return... YOu are now being asked to pay with YOUR money-- that very High amount of money (price).... for a "maybe" return...
-Okay so do we keep jacking the price up more...
If you pay yours moneies now.. should Smm tommorow be "valued at another 30% higher....to $4.64-- which is to say to 1000, 000, 000 dollars -- that is one (1) Billion with a "b" dollars.... !!
All I suggest; is that people considering SMM--at these very high prices-- do at least ...Now ASK-- these questions...??
-And then draw, YOUR own.... rational ....and objective safe conclusions....
Kindest Regards,
Robbo .
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Kindest Regards,
Robbo.
LCK Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)