Hi Guys,
I have owned MLX for a little while and have worked through a comparative spreadsheet for several gold miners that I am following. MLX was always a little hard to work out all the component parts and stuff but I finally got around to it and the effort was worth it.
I treated MLX as a gold mining company (that's were all the moving parts are on the spreadsheet) and I treated the tin operation as an add on - which, given the prospect of $21m profit next year from tin at an EBITDA level is a little unfair (based on guidance and current USD prices).
To test the validity my calc's for the tin (data from MLX presentations and current prices, thanks plough for the correction too!):
[7,500 t x 50% share x ((USD $20,300 - USD $15,500) / AUD $0.83c) = $21m.
This also ties in with previous MLX presentation that provided guidance for 2014 - 15 of EBITDA $30m from the tin operation with additional $8m capex, using AUD $17k costs and AUD $25k tin - which is very close to current tin price given the fall in the AUD.
I ignored any value in the nickel operation as the spreadsheet focuses mainly on cash flows.
To determine the EV I ignored the $40m gold forward as this is simultaneously an asset (cash) and a liability (claim on future production).
Anyway ... have a nose through. The numbers are very good comparatively and, IMO, shows that there is exceptional value within this business.
I treated each gold mining centre as a mine but realize that there are multiple sources for ore. I also didn't count the tin operation as this spreadsheet is focused on the gold side.
MLX doesn't provide estimates on development capex for the gold operation (over and above AISC) and I have not guesstimated this and included it into the spreadsheet as MLX is sitting on a massive pile of cash that can be used for this purpose and thus the operational cash flow shouldn't be affected.
Of interest to me is that every other gold miner I follow has a reasonable level of shorts at present. MLX has none. Perhaps this is also why the company represents good value (and why it took me some time to get around to the spreadsheet) - people don't really know what MLX is - tin? gold? nickel? all three? too hard? too small to bother with?
Anyway ... for those wanting to turn over a few stones MLX is well worth your time IMO.
Cheers
John
(20min delay)