NVX stock price will depend more on their capabilities to supply their current agreement and turn it into a much larger contract over a longer period of time.
Will also depend on getting something similar in writing from Sanyo and other Tier1 manufacturers like SK who have invested in infrastructure in the proximal area.
Why we think the value goes up because Tesla want to use it without any formal indication is beyond me. Why have a middleman like Panasonic/Sanyo if you're not going to use them to take on these kind of risks in the short term.
Even if they do want it directly, it will be for small volumes to contribute to the governments plans to create scalable infrastructure for national security because of whatever incentives the government comes up with.
We keep talking about Tesla as if they are the only big fish, I would back the US government as being a solid opportunity for company maker.
US government is openly discussing risk of current supply chain and setting up incentives and programs to reduce the risk. The centre of this is Li-ion batteries as it is a major risk to their defense forces, the largest in the world.
It looks like SK are lining up to supply US locally in a big way and imo would be the door to knock on.
Current government has not messed about when it comes to making big changes in an attempt to reduce the dependence on China, and that was before Covid showed us all the current supply chain risk. The US GOV could motivate manufacturers very easilly with infrastructure loans and grants and purchase agreements based on local supply chain which would put NVX in a head start position to take on some incredibly big business.
What I don't understand with NVX holders is the focus on optimistic ideas of overnight becoming a $Bil cap company because Elon walks over and says "hey we like that, could we sign over to you and risk our current supply chain to scale this within a month or so and become the US largest manufacturer overnight despite your lack of experience" instead of watching NVX announcements as the tick every box they set out to do with the some of the best tech available and an incredible team.
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