Just cause I know you loveva good warm and fuzzy Jimmy
Here are some points about the Amistad, Alameda, and Marti reservoir formations:- Independent reserves and resources certifier McDaniel & Associates prepared an original Competent Persons Report (30 June 2018) that estimated resources for Block 9 ¹.- The total resource for the three structures (Amistad, Alameda and Marti) encountered while drilling the Alameda-1 well was estimated at 235 million barrels of prospective resource (best estimate) ¹.- No information on the recovery rate given by McDaniel & Associates for these reservoirs is available.
The 235 million barrels of prospective resource is the best estimate (also known as the 2P or P50) case ¹. This means it's the most likely estimate, more likely than the high case (P10) but less likely than the low case (P90) ². Here's a breakdown of the oil-in-place estimates for the Amistad, Alameda, and Marti formations ² ³:- Amistad: Low estimate of 30 million barrels, best estimate of 88 million barrels, high estimate of 240 million barrels- Alameda: Low estimate of 34 million barrels, best estimate of 109 million barrels, high estimate of 297 million barrels- Marti: Low estimate of 21 million barrels, best estimate of 70 million barrels, high estimate of 197 million barrels- Total: Low estimate of 85 million barrels, best estimate of 267 million barrels, high estimate of 734 million barrels.
The low, medium (best estimate), and high scenarios in oil and gas resource estimates refer to the uncertainty associated with the amount of hydrocarbons that can be recovered from a reservoir. The main factors that delineate these scenarios are:1. Recovery Factor (RF): The percentage of oil in place that can be recovered. A higher RF means more oil can be extracted.2. Hydrocarbon Volume (HV): The amount of oil or gas in the reservoir.3. Reservoir Properties (RP): Permeability, porosity, and other geological factors that affect fluid flow and recovery.The low case (P90) represents a more conservative estimate, with a lower RF, HV, and RP. The high case (P10) represents a more optimistic estimate, with a higher RF, HV, and RP. The best estimate (P50) is the most likely scenario, with a moderate RF, HV, and RP.In general, the recovery factor is a key factor in determining the low, medium, and high scenarios. A higher recovery factor will result in a higher estimate of recoverable resources, and vice versa. However, the other factors mentioned above also play a role in determining the uncertainty associated with the resource estimates.
Yes, here are some Oil in Place (OIP) estimates for the mentioned reservoirs ¹ ² ³:- Amistad structure: 1.9 billion barrels of OIP- Marti reservoir: No specific OIP figure available, but the total resource estimate for Amistad, Alameda, and Marti is 6.4 billion barrels of OOIP- Alameda and Marti reservoirs (combined with Amistad): 6.4 billion OIP
If we apply a Varadero-type recovery factor (RF) of 6-7% to the total Oil in Place (OIP) of 6.4 billion barrels, we can estimate the recoverable oil and the life of the field as follows:Recoverable oil:6.4 billion barrels (OIP) x 6% (RF) = 384 million barrels6.4 billion barrels (OIP) x 7% (RF) = 448 million barrelsLife of the field:Assuming a constant production rate, the life of the field can be estimated by dividing the recoverable oil by the annual production rate.For example, if the annual production rate is 20,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), the life of the field would be:384 million barrels (recoverable oil) ÷ 20,000 bbl/d ÷ 365 days per year = 52 years (at 6% RF)448 million barrels (recoverable oil) ÷ 20,000 bbl/d ÷ 365 days per year = 61 years (at 7% RF)Note that this is a rough estimate and actual production rates and field life may vary depending on various factors, including reservoir performance, well placement, and production strategies.
50 years worth of oil at 20k a day (should the field develop as we believe it will using the McD's % probability factor) & using a low rf & assuming the oip estimates are valid (although they do have a habit of creeping as McD's sharpen the pencil each time)..
Not sure if that rivals anything but it's not a bad achievement on a first up campaign... ;-)
gltah & MAY the Cuban sun shine upon you.
h8tey
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