Assuming the deal is off, the only thing which may drive QAN...

Assuming the deal is off, the only thing which may drive QAN back to the $3 mark is forced selling by overseas shareholders who are currently in breach of the foreign ownership limits under the Qantas Sale Act.

Once that business is out of the way, you have to look at how sharemarkets in general, and airlines in particular, have been valued in the half year since the bid was announced. The US airlines are all profitable again. Virgin Blue is up 50%. Singapore Airlines has doubled. The Aussie market is up 15%, and top 50 companies are being valued on a P/E of 17-20, versus a P/E of 13 for QAN at 5.45 after 4 profit upgrades, with a fifth expected (the deceitful xxxx's in management sitting on this one as long as possible).

There will be a great buying opportunity at the bottom, if you can pick it, but overall Andrew Sisson is right on the money and we'll see 5.45 and beyond easily in the next 12 months, if the market powers on the way it has been. There are no other cheap blue chips left.