we are about 1 cent away from breaking a 13 year downtrend in AUDUSD
there is a considerable correlation between the currency and the miners to gold ratio.
AUDUSD
Correlation of AUDUSD & XGD/XAUAUD
XGD i put us in wave 3 of 3 in an EW impulse count.. not an overly reliable way of forecasting but it is handy sometimes for seeing structures.. usually in hindsight though.
the bottom line is, at some point the DXY is going to roll over into a bear cycle, and I think commodity rich nations will see massive capital inflows, we among other countries will ebcome risk on instead of all the money going to the US
Its possible the DXY is rolling over right now... but i could also see a case where the DXY has a blow off top before it collapses, im not really sure whether its done its 5th wave up or not, it could be viewed as just starting the last wave up.. eitherways.. we are close to a massive rotation.. even if there is one last leg to a final high for the DXY, people will be front running the top, it would be like the GFC where gold and DXY ran together the DXY turned and gold continued running. you can argue we have already being doing that in the last 6 months, on the other hand, while gold has run, miners have underperformed suggesting big moves still ahead of us, the miner to gold ratio is still extremely low leaning towads the latter option.
In the fullness of time it will become clearer no doubt
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